CATL(SZ:300750) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-15 08:41Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q1 2025 performance, showing revenue of 84.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.7, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 13.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.3% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Q1 2025 lithium battery shipments experienced significant year-on-year growth, with an estimated output close to 125 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of over 30%, driven by high domestic demand for new energy vehicles and recovering European demand [2] - The average selling price of lithium batteries in Q1 2025 was approximately 0.62 yuan/Wh, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter, while unit gross profit was estimated at around 0.15-0.16 yuan/Wh, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement of nearly 0.01 yuan/Wh [2] - Non-lithium revenue in Q1 2025 was estimated to account for less than 10% of total revenue, with significant declines in lithium materials and mineral resources revenue due to reduced production from Jiangxi lithium mines and falling lithium carbonate prices [2] Cost and Cash Flow - The company's total expense ratio in Q1 2025 was approximately 7.1%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, with financial expenses contributing positively due to interest income and exchange gains [3] - Operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 32.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, indicating high-quality operations as cash flow significantly exceeded net profit [3] Global Strategy and Market Outlook - The impact of U.S. tariffs on the company's operations is considered manageable, with expectations that tariffs will primarily be borne by downstream customers in the short term [3] - The company is accelerating its global capacity layout, particularly in Europe and Indonesia, with expectations for gradual release starting in 2026, and is adjusting its order structure to reduce exposure to U.S. storage markets [3] - The introduction of the LRS model (License, Royalty, Service) aims to expand business in high-barrier markets like North America [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 66.03 billion yuan and 80.63 billion yuan, respectively, with a target price of 320 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 42.9% based on current stock prices [4]