美债“抛售潮”暂歇，什么信号

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year and 30-year bonds, reflects market concerns over economic recession, credit spreads, and liquidity tightening, rather than a broad-based sell-off of U.S. Treasuries [6][8] Group 1: Market Reactions - From April 4 to April 11, the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 3.858% to a peak of 4.588%, marking one of the largest weekly increases in years [2][6] - The 30-year Treasury yield also experienced significant volatility, climbing from 4.31% to over 5%, reaching a high of 5.018% on April 9 [4][6] - The U.S. Treasury futures prices fell nearly 3% during the same period, indicating a strong market reaction to rising yields [6] Group 2: Economic and Policy Implications - The recent sell-off in U.S. Treasuries is attributed to heightened recession fears, widening credit spreads, and tightening liquidity, rather than a systemic issue with dollar liquidity [6][8] - The "reciprocal tariffs" policy has led to global asset volatility, causing investors to withdraw from riskier assets, which has negatively impacted market liquidity [6][8] - Concerns over U.S. fiscal policy, including rising deficits and uncertainties surrounding tax policies, are contributing to a loss of confidence in U.S. sovereign credit and the traditional safe-haven status of Treasuries [7][8] Group 3: Shifts in Safe-Haven Preferences - The recent performance of gold and traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc indicates a structural shift in market preferences away from U.S. Treasuries [7] - The volatility in the Treasury market suggests that its status as a safe haven is being challenged amid rising economic and geopolitical uncertainties [7]