五洲特纸(605007)：业绩低于预期 新基地加快浆纸产能建设

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 fell short of expectations due to weak demand and low paper prices [1][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.656 billion yuan and a net profit of 362 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 33% [1] - Q4 2024 revenue was 2.19 billion yuan with a net profit of 35 million yuan, while Q1 2025 revenue was 1.989 billion yuan and net profit was 65 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 52% [1] - Overall sales volume in 2024 reached 1.4655 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.72% [2] Production and Cost Analysis - New production capacity from the Hubei base contributed significantly, with three new industrial packaging paper lines achieving sales of 316,800 tons [2] - The average price per ton in 2024 was estimated at 5,224 yuan, a decrease of 473 yuan year-on-year, with Q4 2024 average price at 4,469 yuan per ton [2] - Estimated gross profit per ton for 2024 was 516 yuan, and net profit per ton was 265 yuan, both down by 77 yuan and 50 yuan year-on-year respectively [2] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditure remained high at 2.06 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 474 million yuan year-on-year, primarily for new base project construction [2] - The company's net cash flow from operating activities was -96 million yuan by the end of 2024, with Q1 2025 capital expenditure at 566 million yuan [2] Development Trends - The company is accelerating the construction of new bases to create a full range of pulp and paper products [3] - Short-term outlook indicates weak demand and cost reductions in pulp prices, limiting price increases for paper [3] - By the end of 2024, the company achieved a production capacity of 2.134 million tons, with plans to exceed 2.8 million tons in 2025 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak demand and low paper prices, the profit forecast for 2025 was reduced by 37% to 380 million yuan, with a new forecast for 2026 at 390 million yuan [4] - The target price was lowered by 13% to 13 yuan, with implied upside potential of 12% based on P/E ratios for 2025-2026 [4]