人民币的"温柔一刀"：西方经济学家集体看走眼的战略棋局

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China has adopted a "gradual appreciation" strategy for the Renminbi, which contrasts with traditional predictions of sharp fluctuations, leading to a stable yet effective currency valuation adjustment [2][3][5] - The Renminbi has experienced a "slow bull market" over the past 18 months, with minor adjustments of 0.3%-0.5% that do not trigger significant market reactions, allowing Chinese exporters to adapt without major disruptions [3][6] - This gradual appreciation avoids accusations of being a "currency manipulator," as the value adjustments occur quarterly rather than monthly, subtly shifting the global currency valuation framework [5][9] Group 2 - Despite a cumulative appreciation of 7.8% in the Renminbi, China's export share has increased by 1.2 percentage points, demonstrating that the country has effectively countered traditional economic theories regarding currency appreciation harming exports [6] - The strategy of upgrading pricing power across the entire industrial chain has allowed Chinese manufacturers to mitigate currency pressures, as seen in the case of a drone manufacturer that increased product prices by 15% in response to currency changes [6] - International capital is increasingly favoring Renminbi assets, with daily trading volumes in the Bond Connect program tripling during the Renminbi's gradual appreciation, indicating a shift in investment strategies towards stable currency attributes [9]