谁是黄金价格的推手？黄金牛市背后的深层逻辑

Core Insights - Gold prices have become a focal point in global markets, rising from $2080 per ounce in early 2024 to over $3255 in April 2025, driven by multiple factors [1] Group 1: Safe-Haven Demand - The uncertainty in global economic recovery and frequent geopolitical conflicts have heightened safe-haven demand for gold, making it a core driver of price increases [3] - Events such as U.S. military actions in Yemen and drone attacks on Russian oil facilities have further escalated market anxiety, prompting investors to shift funds into gold [3] Group 2: Erosion of Dollar Credibility - The status of the U.S. dollar as the primary reserve currency is being challenged due to high national debt and fiscal deficits, alongside uncertainties in Federal Reserve monetary policy [4] - Rising inflation expectations and declining real interest rates pressure the returns on dollar-denominated assets, enhancing gold's appeal as a global asset [4] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, with purchases exceeding 1000 tons from 2023 to 2024, and this trend is expected to continue into 2025 [6] - Central banks are bolstering their currencies with gold reserves, further driving demand and price increases [6] Group 4: Inflation Expectations and Fed Policy - Changes in U.S. economic inflation data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts are providing support for gold prices [7] - In 2025, the Fed is in a rate-cutting cycle, with persistent high inflation contributing to a downward trend in real interest rates, which benefits gold [7] Group 5: De-Dollarization Trend - The ongoing "de-dollarization" trend, exacerbated by divisive policies, is amplifying gold's volatility and enhancing its strategic position as an alternative reserve asset [8] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a core asset for diversification in investment portfolios [8] Group 6: Future Outlook - Despite gold prices being at historical highs, the underlying logic for price increases remains intact, supported by ongoing central bank demand and short-term safe-haven needs [9] - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with extreme scenarios suggesting a potential rise above $4500 per ounce [9]