Economic Outlook - The Peterson Institute for International Economics warns that despite temporarily avoiding a technical recession, the U.S. economy is facing significant challenges due to a combination of tariffs, tightened immigration policies, and budget cuts, leading to a projected GDP growth drop from 2.5% in 2024 to 0.1% in 2025, with inflation expectations rising to 4.5% and unemployment potentially reaching 5% [1][4]. Tariff Impact - The report identifies recent tariff increases as the "core engine" of economic slowdown, with the tariff rate on imported goods reaching 28% in Q1 2025, a 15 percentage point increase from 2023, resulting in a 9.7% year-over-year rise in the consumer price index for imported goods [3][4]. - The hidden cost of tariffs is significant, with every $1 in tariff revenue costing consumers $1.20, affecting essential goods and leading to an 18% increase in raw material costs for manufacturers [3][4]. Labor Market and Immigration - The tightening of immigration policies is projected to reduce legal immigration quotas by 40% compared to 2023, leading to a 1.2 percentage point decline in labor force participation, impacting approximately 3 million jobs in retail and manufacturing [4][5]. - The labor shortage is expected to increase business costs and reduce potential consumer demand by $80 billion annually [4]. Government Budget Cuts - A 20% budget cut in government efficiency departments is causing delays in customs clearance and small business subsidy approvals, exacerbating challenges for the private sector [4][5]. - 38% of businesses have reportedly abandoned plans to expand into overseas markets due to government approval delays [4]. Consumer Spending and Inflation - Rising inflation is eroding wage growth, leading to a contraction in consumer spending, with core retail sales declining by 0.3% in March [5][6]. - The economic slowdown in the U.S. is expected to impact global markets, with emerging market export orders declining by 15% and a projected 0.8 percentage point reduction in growth for economies reliant on U.S. exports [5][6]. Federal Reserve Policy Challenges - The report warns that the Federal Reserve may face a "stagflation paradox," where high inflation and low growth limit policy options, potentially leading to a repeat of the 1970s scenario where interest rates were raised significantly to combat inflation at the cost of prolonged recession [8].
ETO交易平台:关税绞杀下的美国经济,从"温和放缓"到"滞涨倒计时"
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-04-16 06:14