SUN PAPER(SZ:002078) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-16 08:32Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve strong performance in 2024, with profitability likely to accelerate in 2025 due to seasonal demand and operational improvements [1] Group 1: Investment Highlights - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025 and introduced a new forecast for 2027, projecting EPS of 1.26, 1.38, and 1.47 yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [2] - The target price has been raised to 18.87 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating, based on a 15X PE valuation for 2025 [2] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 40.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a net profit of 3.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [2] Group 2: Operational Performance - The company demonstrated resilience in Q4 2024, achieving a revenue of 9.75 billion yuan, although this represented a year-on-year decline of 5.7%, with net profit down 32.3% [2] - The overall industry faced pressure in Q4 2024, but the company performed well due to improved profitability in cultural paper [2] - The company is expected to see continued profitability in Q1 2025 as cultural paper enters the sales peak season, supported by rising pulp prices and inventory consumption [3] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - The company is focusing on a vertically integrated model, enhancing its cost advantages through strategic management and resource acquisition [3] - The company is expanding its forest land in Laos, which is expected to strengthen its resource moat amid rising wood chip prices [3] - The company is gradually building a competitive edge in the paper manufacturing sector by optimizing its product structure and leveraging low-cost inventory [3]