行 业 及 产 业 轻工制造 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 27 日 家居智能化加速存量换新；高股息 梳理；关注思摩尔、乐舒适业绩 看好 ——造纸轻工周报 2026/03/16-2026/03/20 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 重点提示：1）家居：本周软体家居智能产品密集发布，品类新范式驱动换新需求；板 块估值底部，地产政策有望催化估值向上，行业整合加速，关注具备高股息安全边际的 【顾家家居】【索 ...

行 业 及 产 业 轻工制造 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 27 日 家居智能化加速存量换新；高股息 梳理；关注思摩尔、乐舒适业绩 看好 ——造纸轻工周报 2026/03/16-2026/03/20 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 重点提示：1）家居：本周软体家居智能产品密集发布 ...

造纸轻工行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 能源价格上行，浆价表现或超市场预期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 地缘冲突背景下，油价中枢显著提升，能源成本上行或将助推纸浆价格延续前期涨势， 国内造纸行业仅有部分龙头企业布局上游制浆环节，与未涉足纸浆领域的企业在成本端 或将形成较大差异。我们看好前瞻性布局上游纸浆环节的造纸企业，相关标的太阳纸业 (002078，未评级)、仙鹤股份(603733，未评级)、五洲特纸(605007，未评级)、玖龙纸 业(02689，未评级)。 风险提示 能源价格大幅波动的风险；宏观经济增速放缓、终端需求下滑幅度超预期的风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 造纸轻工行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 27 日 看好（维持） 李雪君 执业证书编号：S0860517020001 香港证监会牌照：BSW124 lixuejun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 本周成品纸价格基本稳定：——造纸产业 | 2025-06-08 | | --- | --- | | 链数据每周速递（2025/06/06） | | | 本周文化纸价格下跌，包装纸价格上涨： | 2025-06 ...

记者今日从产业链获悉，包括太阳纸业、五洲特纸在内的多家纸企发布调价通知称，受原材料及其他综合成本上升影响， 自3月21日起， 对旗下数码纸产品在现有价格基础上，上调500元/吨。 此外，仙鹤股份发布的调价通知函显示，为缓解公司运营压力，3月21日发货起， 公司供应的喷绘热转印原纸全系列产品在3月5日涨价基 础上，再上涨500元/吨。 来源：财联社 多家黄金品牌宣布：调价！ 寿司郎回应消费者吃出金枪鱼寄生虫卵 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 往期推荐 ...

此外，仙鹤股份发布的调价通知函显示，为缓解公司运营压力，3月21日发货起， 公司供应的 喷绘热转印原纸全系列产品在3月5日涨价基础上，再上涨500元/吨。 财联社记者今日从产业链获悉，包括太阳纸业、五洲特纸在内的多家纸企发布调价通知称，受原材 料及其他综合成本上升影响， 自3月21日起，对旗下数码纸产品在现有价格基础上，上调500元/ 吨。 ...

证券研究报告 2026年3月16日 以纸周期为例，探讨周期品的市场定价逻辑 分析师：徐偲SAC执业证书号：S0010523120001邮箱：xucai@hazq.com 分析师：余倩莹SAC执业证书号：S0010524040004邮箱：yuqianying@hazq.com 1 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 目录 1 造纸为典型顺周期行业，周期底部反转迹象已现 2 板块股价遵循二阶段演绎，吨盈为核心定价锚 3 当前板块仍处于第一阶段，吨盈仍有较大改善空间 $$\sqrt{4}$$ 风险提示：业务经营风险，环保风险，政策风险，行业竞争风险，汇率风险。 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 -5 0 5 10 15 20 中国:GDP:不变价:同比 中国:工业增加值:规模以上工业企业:造纸及纸制品业:累计同比 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 资料来源：Wind，国家统计局，华安证券研究所 资料来源： Wind，国家统计局，华安证券研究所 (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2000-02 2000-12 2001-10 2002-08 2003-06 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with Sun Paper (002078.SZ) demonstrating resilience and strong performance amidst overall industry decline, reporting a revenue of 39.18 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.26 billion yuan, an increase of 5.1% [4][5]. Industry Overview - The paper industry is currently facing challenges due to overcapacity and declining prices, particularly in cultural paper, where production capacity has increased by nearly 50% from 2021 to 2025 [8][9]. - Major competitors in the A-share market are struggling, with companies like Bohui Paper and Shanying International reporting significant profit declines and losses [10]. Company Performance - Sun Paper has maintained profitability exceeding 3 billion yuan for three consecutive years, with a gross margin of 15.7% in the first three quarters of 2025, outperforming its peers [13]. - The company has established a cost advantage through early investment in "integrated forestry, pulp, and paper" operations, achieving a self-sufficiency rate of 70% in pulp production [15]. Product Diversification - Sun Paper's product mix includes cultural paper, packaging paper, and pulp, allowing it to mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single product type. Despite a decline in cultural paper revenue, the company saw growth in boxboard paper and improved margins in dissolving pulp [15][16]. Capital Expenditure and Expansion - Sun Paper's capital expenditure reached 6.925 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly higher than its competitors, indicating aggressive expansion plans [20][21]. - The company has completed projects that added 1 million tons of high-end packaging paper and 300,000 tons of household paper, with further expansions planned for 2026 [22]. Market Trends and Pricing - The paper pulp market is showing signs of recovery, with international prices increasing and domestic demand for paper packaging driven by new regulations against single-use plastics [25]. - Sun Paper has announced price increases for cultural paper, reflecting a potential recovery in industry confidence, with a total increase of 400 yuan per ton, approximately 8%-9% [29].

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - March 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting changes post-Chinese New Year (CNY) amid elevated commodity prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Key Points Demand Trends - **Mixed Demand Post-CNY**: Demand is strong for energy-related items such as power grid cables, ESS batteries, and export solar modules, but weaker than expected in construction, appliances, automotive, and traditional hardware [1] - **Demand Destruction**: Elevated metal prices have led to a **15-20% demand destruction** pre-CNY, although this has been accepted by the end market for now [1] - **Export Orders Impact**: Producers expect a **5-15% impact on export orders** from the Middle East, particularly in steel, electric vehicles (EV), and energy storage systems (ESS) [1] - **High Energy Prices**: The outlook for high energy prices has made copper traders cautious, leading to increased prices for seaborne and domestic coal [1] Supply Dynamics - **Cement Production Cuts**: Top cement producers are closing **5-15% of their capacity** due to depressed demand [1] - **Carbon Trading Impact**: The inclusion of steel in the national carbon trading platform imposes limited discipline on steel production in 2026 [1] Demand Metrics - **High-Frequency Data**: In the first week of March, Chinese demand was reported to be **50-60% lower year-on-year (YoY)** for cement and construction steel, and **2-8% lower YoY** for aluminum, copper, and flat steel [1] - **Margin and Pricing Trends**: Margins/pricing for coal, aluminum, and lithium improved, while steel and cement prices softened, with copper prices remaining stable [1] Producer Feedback - **Order Book Trends**: A proprietary survey indicated that **95% of respondents** reported a month-on-month (MoM) pickup in March for downstream sectors, and **86% for commodities** [2] Additional Insights - **Cautious Outlook**: The overall cautious sentiment in the market is reflected in the mixed demand and the adjustments in production capacities across various sectors [1][2] Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is currently navigating a complex landscape characterized by mixed demand, elevated prices, and strategic adjustments in production. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy price fluctuations are critical factors influencing market dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light industry and paper sector, anticipating performance improvements in 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights an acceleration in industry consolidation, with leading companies demonstrating resilience and a wait for demand recovery in 2026 [2][3]. - It predicts that the paper prices will continue to rise due to cost-driven factors, increased demand, and alleviated supply pressures, leading to improved profitability in Q4 2025 [4]. - The packaging and printing sector is expected to see a rise in profitability for leading companies, while some may experience declines due to optimization and potential impairments [4][9]. - The export sector shows a mixed performance, with companies having global supply chain advantages expected to maintain steady growth [4][12]. - The home furnishing sector is under pressure from policy changes, with soft furniture performing better than custom furniture [4][14]. - The light consumer goods sector is facing overall demand pressure, but individual companies are showing structural highlights [4][16]. Summary by Sections Paper Industry - The report forecasts improved profitability for companies like Sun Paper and BoHui Paper in Q4 2025, with expected net profits of 7.58 billion and 1.11 billion respectively, showing significant year-on-year growth [6][8]. - Companies like ShanYing International are expected to incur losses, with a projected net profit of -6.50 billion [8]. Packaging and Printing - YuTong Technology is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.23 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase [9][10]. - Companies like HeXing Packaging are projected to face losses, with a net profit of -0.25 billion [10]. Export Sector - Co-Creation Turf is expected to see a revenue increase of 24% year-on-year, reaching 8.59 billion, with a net profit of 1.64 billion [12][13]. - Companies like JiaYi Co. are projected to experience a decline in profits, with a net profit of 1.43 billion, down 29% year-on-year [12][13]. Home Furnishing - Companies like Gujia Home are expected to see a revenue of 48.62 billion in Q4 2025, with a net profit of 3.18 billion, reflecting a significant increase [14][15]. - Companies like Oppein Home are projected to face a 20% decline in net profit, estimated at 4.55 billion [15][17]. Light Consumer Goods - Companies like Guangbo are expected to achieve a net profit of 0.52 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase [16][19]. - Companies like Bull Group are projected to see a decline in net profit, estimated at 9.58 billion, down 5% year-on-year [19][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The paper industry is experiencing a price increase trend, with corrugated paper prices rising by 70 CNY/ton and white cardboard prices slightly increasing by 3 CNY/ton. Major paper companies are collaborating to raise prices, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [2][5] - The inventory of pulp has increased to 154,300 tons, with a closing price of 5,260 CNY/ton, which supports cost stability for paper companies [2][11] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower the import costs of pulp, contributing to an improvement in industry conditions. The operating rates of paper companies are recovering, and inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the industry [2][4] - The current phase is critical for profitability recovery, suggesting a focus on "price elasticity and cost benefits" for investment strategies. Short-term tracking of price increases for white cardboard and white board paper is recommended, along with monitoring the recovery of demand [2][27] Summary by Sections Industry News - The paper industry is showing signs of recovery, with companies issuing price increase notices and a heightened focus from institutions. However, demand remains under pressure, making it difficult to predict a full industry turnaround [3] - In January and February, major price increases were announced for white cardboard and household paper, with a unified increase of 200 CNY/ton for white cardboard and 100 CNY/ton for household paper, effective from March 1 [3][5] Price Trends - The recent price increase cycle in the paper industry has seen major companies raise prices across various product categories, with increases ranging from 50 CNY/ton to 300 CNY/ton [5][9] - The price of white cardboard is currently around 4,560 CNY/ton, while the price of corrugated paper is approximately 3,460 CNY/ton, reflecting a stable market with some upward movement [18] Company Developments - The successful operation of the third plant at Chenming's Zhanjiang base marks a significant step in capacity recovery, with an annual production capacity of 190,000 tons for cultural paper [22] - Wuzhou Special Paper Industry announced a major expansion project in Jiangxi, with an investment of approximately 5.44 billion CNY, aiming to produce high-end information paper and other products [26]