GEPIC(000791) 新浪财经·2025-04-16 08:30Core Viewpoint - The company’s Changle project, a peak-shaving thermal power asset, is expected to have a stable and high net profit of 0.087 yuan per kilowatt-hour in 2024, indicating it is a quality asset within the thermal power sector, with potential for valuation upgrades [1] Investment Highlights - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, projecting EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.58, 0.74, and 0.78 yuan respectively. Given the company's robust operational capabilities in thermal power and its significantly higher profit per kilowatt-hour compared to peers, a valuation premium is justified, assigning a 14x PE for 2025, leading to a target price of 8.12 yuan [2] - In the 2024 annual report, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.7 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 24.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.64 billion yuan, up 40.3% year-over-year (after retrospective adjustments). The Changle peak-shaving thermal power contributed 1.11 billion yuan to net profit, an increase of 460 million yuan year-over-year, primarily due to the commissioning of units 3 and 4 in November and December 2023 [2] - The Changle peak-shaving thermal power operates under Hunan electricity prices, with coal sourced from Xinjiang, resulting in high profit per kilowatt-hour. The net profit per kilowatt-hour is calculated at 0.087 yuan, an increase of 0.014 yuan year-over-year. Revenue per kilowatt-hour is 0.312 yuan, down 0.008 yuan year-over-year, while cost per kilowatt-hour is 0.202 yuan, down 0.021 yuan year-over-year, influenced by underutilization of newly commissioned units and a decrease in coal prices [2] Future Performance Estimates - For 2025, assuming thermal power utilization hours increase to 5,500 hours and a decrease in electricity prices by 0.01 yuan, along with a 50 yuan/ton drop in benchmark coal prices, the net profit per kilowatt-hour is estimated at approximately 0.09 yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Changle is projected at 1.3 billion yuan, with total net profit for the company expected to reach 1.89 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE valuation of 11.6 times as of April 9 [3] - Future growth includes two additional 1 million kilowatt thermal power units under construction, expected to be operational by the end of 2025, potentially contributing 340 million yuan to net profit in 2026. The company also has significant renewable energy projects in reserve, including a 6 million kilowatt project in the Tengger Desert and a 1 million kilowatt project in Wuwei Minqin, indicating substantial long-term growth potential in renewable energy [3]