Ollie's Bargain Stock Up 11% in a Month: Lock in Gains or Hold?

Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) has experienced a stock increase of 10.8% in the past month, driven by strong financial results and growth strategies, raising questions about potential further upside or if the stock has peaked [1] Financial Performance - The stock closed at $114.48, which is 4.6% below its 52-week high of $120.03 reached on December 20, 2024 [5] - OLLI's stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend [5] - The company reported comparable store sales growth of 2.8% in the final quarter [10] Growth Strategy - Ollie's Army membership has grown to over 15.1 million active members, contributing to more than 80% of sales [9] - The company opened 13 new stores in the fourth quarter and a total of 50 stores throughout fiscal 2024, with plans to open 75 new stores in fiscal 2025 [11] - Management projects fiscal 2025 net sales between $2,564 million and $2,586 million, an increase from $2,271.7 million in fiscal 2024 [12] Market Position - OLLI's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 29.89, significantly higher than the industry average of 20.94 and the S&P 500's 19.85 [16] - The stock is trading above its median P/E level of 27.38 observed over the past year [16] Challenges - The company faces macroeconomic challenges, including inflationary pressures and uncertain consumer spending, which may impact demand [13] - There are expectations of comparable store sales growth of only 1% in the first and second quarters of fiscal 2025 due to tougher year-over-year comparisons [13] - Increased upfront costs associated with new store openings, including $5 million in dark rent expenses, may pressure near-term margins [14]