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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) reported mixed third-quarter results on Tuesday.The company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 75 cents, beating the analyst consensus estimate of 73 cents. Quarterly sales of $613.62 million, up 18.6% year over year, missed the Street view of $614.397 million."With the better-than-expected third-quarter results and a very good start to the fourth quarter, we are raising our full-year sales and earnings outlook," said Eric van der Valk, ...

Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. reported mixed third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share exceeding analyst expectations but sales falling short of projections [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 75 cents, beating the analyst consensus estimate of 73 cents [1]. - Quarterly sales reached $613.62 million, reflecting an 18.6% year-over-year increase, but missed the expected $614.397 million [1]. Future Outlook - Following the better-than-expected third-quarter results, the company raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share guidance from $3.76–$3.84 to $3.81-$3.87, compared to the analyst estimate of $3.85 [2]. - Ollie's Bargain Outlet also increased its 2025 sales guidance from $2.631 -$2.644 billion to $2.648 -$2.655 billion, against the consensus of $2.644 billion [2]. Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, Ollie's Bargain shares fell 0.3% to trade at $113.79 [3]. - Analysts adjusted their price targets for Ollie's Bargain after the earnings report, with UBS lowering its target from $141 to $130 and Piper Sandler cutting its target from $150 to $140 [4].

Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) reported mixed results for Q3 fiscal 2025, with revenues slightly below estimates but earnings exceeding expectations, showing year-over-year improvement in both metrics [1][10] - The company raised its full-year sales and earnings outlook, indicating strong momentum from Q3 and a positive start to Q4 [2] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings were 75 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents and reflecting a 29.3% increase from 58 cents in the prior year [3][10] - Net sales increased by 18.6% to $613.6 million, driven by new store openings and solid comparable-store performance, although it fell short of the $616 million estimate [4][10] - Comparable-store sales grew by 3.3%, supported by mid-single-digit growth in transactions, despite a lower average ticket price [4] Category Performance - Key performing categories included food, seasonal items, hardware, stationery, and lawn & garden, with management noting that retail consolidation and improved deal flow in consumables enhanced traffic and customer acquisition [5] Margin Analysis - Gross profit rose by 18.3% to $253.7 million, while gross margin slightly decreased by 10 basis points to 41.3% due to higher supply-chain costs [6] - SG&A expenses as a percentage of net sales improved by 50 basis points to 29.4%, reflecting lower professional fees and optimized marketing expenditures [7] - Operating income increased by 24.5% to $55.4 million, with operating margin expanding by 40 basis points to 9% [8] Store Expansion - The company opened 32 new stores in the quarter, bringing the total to 645 stores, an 18.1% increase year-over-year, and completed 86 store openings year-to-date, exceeding the initial target of 75 [9] Customer Engagement - Membership in the loyalty program, Ollie's Army, grew by 11.8% to 16.6 million members, with significant growth among younger and higher-income demographics [11] Financial Position - Ollie's Bargain ended the quarter with $432.2 million in total cash and investments, a 42.2% year-over-year increase, maintaining a debt-light balance sheet [12] - The company repurchased $12 million worth of stock, with $293 million remaining under its current authorization [13] Future Outlook - For fiscal 2025, net sales are projected between $2,648 million and $2,655 million, with comparable store sales growth forecasted at 3.2% to 3.5% [14] - Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range of $3.81 to $3.87 per share, an increase from the previous outlook [15]

Ollie’s storefront with its bright yellow sign and red-striped awnings highlights the brand’s value-focused retail appeal. Key Points Ollie's Bargain Outlet is accelerating growth and is likely to outperform its guidance in the upcoming quarters. Analysts and institutions are accumulating the stock in 2025, underpinning market support. December's price pullback is a sign of market capitulation, likely leading to a rebound in early 2026. Interested in Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.? Here are fiv ...

Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported third-quarter earnings of $0.75 per share, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.73, while revenue was slightly below estimates at $613.6 million compared to the forecast of $614.56 million [1] - The company experienced a year-over-year sales increase of 18.6%, driven by strong new-store growth and a 3.3% rise in comparable sales [1] Store Expansion and Loyalty Program - Ollie's opened a record 32 new stores during the quarter, bringing the total to 645 locations across 34 states, marking an 18.1% increase from the previous year [2] - The Ollie's Army loyalty program grew by 11.8%, reaching 16.6 million members [2] Financial Performance and Outlook - Operating income increased by 24.5% to $55.4 million, with an operating margin improvement of 40 basis points to 9.0% [2] - The company raised its full-year revenue outlook to between $2.648 billion and $2.655 billion, surpassing previous forecasts and market estimates [3] - Adjusted EPS guidance was also increased to a range of $3.81 to $3.87, up from the prior guidance of $3.76 to $3.84 [3] Future Plans - For fiscal 2026, Ollie's plans to open 75 new stores, primarily in the first half of the year [3]

Store Operations and Expansion - Ollie's operates 645 retail stores across 34 states as of November 1, 2025[82] - The average store size is slightly above 32,000 square feet, with a target upfront cash investment of approximately $1 million per new store[83] - The company aims for new stores to achieve net sales of approximately $4 million and a four-wall profit margin in the mid-teens percentage rate[83] - Ollie's plans to expand its distribution capabilities to support up to approximately 750 stores with the addition of a fourth distribution center[84] - The growth strategy includes opening new stores and acquiring locations from distressed retailers, focusing on contiguous market expansion[82] - Ollie's anticipates that new store growth will be the primary driver of sales growth, with initial lease terms averaging seven years[92] - The company opened 32 stores in Q3 fiscal 2025, compared to 24 store openings in Q3 fiscal 2024, with 23 of the new stores being bankruptcy acquired leases[113] Financial Performance - Net sales increased by 18.6% to $613.6 million in Q3 fiscal 2025 from $517.4 million in Q3 fiscal 2024, driven by new store growth and an increase in comparable store sales[120] - Comparable store sales rose by 3.3% in Q3 fiscal 2025 compared to a 0.5% decrease in Q3 fiscal 2024, primarily due to an increase in the number of transactions[121] - Gross profit increased by 18.3% to $253.7 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, while gross margin decreased by 10 basis points to 41.3%[122] - Net sales increased 16.6% to $1.870 billion for the thirty-nine weeks ended November 1, 2025, compared to $1.605 billion for the same period in 2024[129] - Comparable store sales rose 3.7% in the thirty-nine weeks ended November 1, 2025, compared to a 2.8% increase in the prior year[130] - Gross profit increased 18.6% to $762.0 million, with gross margin rising 70 basis points to 40.8%[131] - Net income increased by 28.7% to $46.2 million in Q3 fiscal 2025 from $35.9 million in Q3 fiscal 2024[127] - Net income rose 18.2% to $155.0 million for the thirty-nine weeks ended November 1, 2025, compared to $131.2 million in the prior year[137] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $72.9 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, an increase of 21.8% from $59.8 million in Q3 fiscal 2024[128] - Adjusted EBITDA increased 17.3% to $238.8 million for the thirty-nine weeks ended November 1, 2025[138] Expenses and Profitability - Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses are expected to increase as the store base grows, with a focus on maintaining discipline in monitoring SG&A as a percentage of net sales[103] - SG&A expenses rose to $180.3 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, an increase of 16.7%, but decreased as a percentage of net sales to 29.4%[123] - SG&A expenses increased 17.6% to $520.6 million, representing 27.8% of net sales, up from 27.6%[132] - Pre-opening expenses increased by 3.2% to $7.4 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, driven by new store growth and dark rent associated with bankruptcy acquired stores[124] - Pre-opening expenses surged 58.9% to $23.0 million, driven by new store growth and dark rent expenses[133] Cash Flow and Capital Management - Net cash provided by operating activities was $114.2 million, up from $79.7 million in the prior year[148] - Capital expenditures for the thirty-nine weeks ended November 1, 2025, were $83.9 million, down from $96.2 million in the previous year[139] - The company repurchased 346,032 shares for $40.2 million during the thirty-nine weeks ended November 1, 2025[146] Tax and Interest - Income tax expense increased to $13.8 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, with an effective tax rate of 23.0% compared to 26.1% in Q3 fiscal 2024[126] - Interest income, net increased to $4.5 million in Q3 fiscal 2025 from $4.0 million in Q3 fiscal 2024, attributed to higher average cash and cash equivalent balances[125] Profitability Metrics - Gross profit is calculated as net sales minus cost of sales, with gross margin being a key performance indicator[98]

In 2024, we went to a Buy rating , upgrading Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. ( OLLI ) stock on its growth and valuation mix combination. Shares have rallied about 25% since the call, though they had reachedThe Pioneer Of Seeking Alpha's BAD BEAT Investing, Quad 7 Capital is a team of 7 analysts with a wide range of experience sharing investment opportunities for nearly 12 years. They are best known for their February 2020 call to sell everything & go short, & have been on average 95% long 5% short sin ...

In 2024, we went to a Buy rating , upgrading Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. ( OLLI ) stock on its growth and valuation mix combination. Shares have rallied about 25% since the call, though they had reachedThe Pioneer Of Seeking Alpha's BAD BEAT Investing, Quad 7 Capital is a team of 7 analysts with a wide range of experience sharing investment opportunities for nearly 12 years. They are best known for their February 2020 call to sell everything & go short, & have been on average 95% long 5% short sin ...

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) reported $613.62 million in revenue for the quarter ended October 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.6%. EPS of $0.75 for the same period compares to $0.58 a year ago.The reported revenue represents a surprise of -0.33% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $615.68 million. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.71, the EPS surprise was +5.63%.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compar ...