UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, DC 20549 Form 10-K ☑ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from _______ to ________ Commission file number: 001-37501 Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) | Delaware | 80-0848819 | | -- ...

Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet's stock price downtrend is over, with Q4 2025 results reaffirming a robust outlook despite slight misses on consensus forecasts [2] - Analysts at RBC highlight the company's aggressive expansion and potential for outperformance, particularly due to the Big Lots bankruptcy creating a customer conversion opportunity [3] - Ollie's reported $779.26 million in net revenue, a 16.8% year-over-year increase, with comp-store sales growth of 3.6% and a 15.4% increase in store count [3] Financial Performance - Revenue growth fell short of consensus estimates, but the company's performance outpaced competitors, driven by better-than-expected comp and store-count growth [3] - Adjusted EPS missed consensus by two cents, but earnings growth outpaced revenue growth, indicating solid margin control and revenue leverage [4] - Guidance for future revenue is projected between $2.985 billion and $3.013 billion, with an earnings midpoint of $4.45, both slightly below consensus expectations [4] Market Position - The Big Lots bankruptcy is seen as a multi-year event that will benefit Ollie's, with analysts believing this opportunity is not yet reflected in the stock price [5] - Institutional investors own nearly all of the float and have been consistent buyers, supporting a company that funds its own growth and trades below analyst targets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant upgrades in stock ratings from various financial institutions, indicating positive market sentiment and potential growth for the companies mentioned [1]. Group 1: Upgrades - HSBC upgraded Nio (NIO) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $6.80, increased from $4.80, citing improved visibility and stronger conviction in Nio's 2026 volume growth and earnings trajectory following the Q4 report [1]. - Wells Fargo upgraded Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $130, up from $120, driven by a positive Q4 update and ongoing momentum in Ollie's story [1]. - Wells Fargo also upgraded Nutrien (NTR) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $100, increased from $77, due to anticipated pricing upside across several chemical chains influenced by the conflict in Iran [1]. - JPMorgan upgraded Alcoa (AA) to Neutral from Underweight with a price target of $68, up from $50, noting a 12% rally in aluminum prices since the onset of the conflict in Iran due to regional supply risks [1]. - Barclays upgraded Murphy Oil (MUR) to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $33, raised from $29, as the firm increased 2026 oil price estimates due to the Iran war and recognized underappreciated cash flow tailwinds for the exploration and production sector [1].

Core Viewpoint - BofA has lowered the price target for Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) to $135 from $150 while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares, reflecting a mixed outlook on the company's performance [1] Financial Estimates - The firm is increasing its FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates by 2% and 1% respectively, due to an improved gross margin outlook and increased share buyback [1] - The price target reduction is attributed to peer multiple compression, indicating a shift in market valuation dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.39, which was in line with analyst expectations [1] - Quarterly sales reached $779.256 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 16.8%, but fell short of the analyst consensus estimate of $783.271 million [1] - The company anticipates fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share between $4.40 and $4.50, slightly above the $4.48 estimate, and expects sales to be between $2.985 billion and $3.013 billion, compared to a $3.002 billion estimate [2] Group 2 - Following the earnings announcement, Ollie's Bargain Outlet shares increased by 4.2%, closing at $109.25 [3] - Analysts have adjusted their price targets for Ollie's Bargain Outlet in response to the earnings report [3]

Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) reported mixed results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with revenues slightly below expectations but earnings exceeding estimates. Both metrics showed year-over-year improvement, driven by strong comparable-store sales growth and new store performance [1][4]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.39, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.38 and reflecting a 16.8% increase from $1.19 in the prior year [3]. - Net sales increased by 16.8% to $779.3 million, although it fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $781 million. Comparable-store sales grew by 3.6%, supported by increased basket size and transaction volume [4]. - Gross profit rose 14.5% to $310.9 million, but gross margin decreased by 80 basis points to 39.9%, primarily due to planned price investments [5]. - Operating income increased by 24.4% to $109.1 million, with the operating margin expanding by 80 basis points to 14% [7]. Store Expansion and Customer Engagement - The company opened 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, bringing the total to 645 stores across 34 states, representing a 15.4% increase [2]. - The Ollie's Army loyalty program grew by over 12% to 17 million members, indicating strong customer engagement [2]. Future Guidance - For fiscal 2026, Ollie's projects net sales between $2.985 billion and $3.013 billion, up from $2.649 billion in fiscal 2025. Comparable-store sales growth is expected to be around 2% [10]. - Management anticipates adjusted EPS in the range of $4.40 to $4.50, an increase from $3.86 in fiscal 2025 [11]. - Capital expenditures are projected to be between $103 million and $113 million, with plans for share repurchases totaling $100 million [11].

Group 1 - Truist lowered the price target on Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) to $135 from $142 while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares [1] - The firm is described as an "aggressive" buyer of shares following a "strong" Q4 report, which showed comparable store sales (comps) of 3.6%, slightly below the firm's estimate of 4% [1] - The firm believes that if Ollie's can achieve a relatively stable mid-teens bottom line growth rate, the shares should trade at a significantly higher premium than currently reflected [1]

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Group 1 - The article emphasizes that market volatility presents investment opportunities rather than threats, particularly for the BAD BEAT Investing community, which focuses on identifying entry points for rapid returns [1] - A buy recommendation is reiterated for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI), highlighting a significant pullback of nearly 40 points from its highs as a favorable entry opportunity [1] - BAD BEAT Investing is characterized by a team of seven analysts with extensive experience, known for their strategic calls and a long-term investment approach, maintaining an average of 95% long and 5% short positions since May 2020 [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy of BAD BEAT Investing includes a combination of high-conviction rapid-return trades and deep-value dividends aimed at securing retirement [1] - The organization provides educational resources to help investors become proficient traders, offering in-depth research, clear entry and exit targets, and various trading tools [1] - Analysts involved in BAD BEAT Investing have personal investments in the equities discussed, ensuring alignment of interests with their recommendations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported fourth-quarter results that met profit expectations but slightly missed revenue forecasts, while providing a full-year outlook that exceeded market expectations [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $1.39, compared to analyst expectations of $1.41 [1] - Revenue increased by 17% year over year to $779.25 million, falling short of the consensus estimate of $783.71 million [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter reached $127.13 million, with a gross margin reported at 39.9% [2] Comparable Store Sales - Comparable store sales rose by 3.6% in the quarter, up from 2.8% a year earlier, driven by larger basket sizes and higher transaction volumes [2] - Strongest category performance during the period included seasonal products, consumables, hardware, stationery, and sporting goods [2] Future Outlook - For fiscal 2026, adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $4.40 and $4.50, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $3.91 [3] - Net sales are projected to range from $2.99 billion to $3.01 billion, above the $2.65 billion forecast by analysts [3] - Comparable store sales growth is anticipated to be about 2%, with a gross margin of approximately 40.5% for the year [3]