Tesla's Future Growth From Robotaxis And New Products Intact Despite Q1 Miss: Analyst

Core Viewpoint - Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter maintains an Overweight rating on Tesla Inc but lowers the price forecast from $450 to $400 due to disappointing first-quarter financials and missed delivery expectations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tesla's first-quarter deliveries of 337,000 units fell short of the consensus estimate of 378,000 units, leading to expectations of gross margins near multi-year lows [1] - Potter projects first-quarter revenue of $20.29 billion and EPS of $0.36, reflecting a significant downward adjustment in estimates due to lower deliveries and a slower margin ramp [5] - The analyst expects deliveries of 1.74 million units in 2025 and 2.09 million units in 2026, down from previous estimates of 1.88 million and 2.3 million, respectively [3] Group 2: Future Outlook and Catalysts - Despite a bearish short-term outlook, Potter notes that Tesla could experience a sharp rally when significant catalysts, such as new products and robotaxis, emerge [2] - The lack of disclosed specifications or pricing for the upcoming "Model 2" makes it challenging to defend forecasts, but new product launches could help offset declining demand for existing vehicles [4] - A single positive development regarding robotaxis could dramatically shift the narrative, as full self-driving software is a major component of Potter's long-term profit outlook [5]