国债收益率持续下行的原因及相关建议

Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of 2024, the rapid decline in government bond yields has significantly outpaced the decrease in policy interest rates, indicating a potential "overshoot" phenomenon. Investment institutions, primarily small and medium-sized banks and asset management firms, have substantially increased their allocation to bond assets, leading to a surge in bond trading volume and a swift decline in government bond yields, which poses potential risks. Regulatory authorities are advised to enhance communication and supervision to guide the market back to rationality, while investment institutions should optimize asset allocation strategies and improve risk management capabilities to prevent market risks [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Decline in Government Bond Yields - In 2024, China's government bond yields have been on a continuous decline, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from 2.56% at the beginning of the year to 1.68% by the end of December. The decline can be divided into four phases [2]. - Phase 1 (Early January to Late April): The yield fell from 2.56% to around 2.35% due to expectations of interest rate cuts and a slow supply of government bonds, leading to an "asset shortage" scenario. By mid-April, the yield reached approximately 2.23% before rebounding to 2.35% due to regulatory warnings about bond market risks [3]. - Phase 2 (Late April to Mid-September): After regulatory concerns, yields stabilized around 2.30%. However, increasing economic downturn expectations and weak equity market performance led to renewed declines, with yields dropping to around 2.23% by June [4]. - Phase 3 (Late September to Late October): Following a series of monetary policy announcements, yields initially rose to about 2.25% but then stabilized in a narrow range of 2.1% to 2.2% due to weak economic demand [5]. - Phase 4 (Early November to End of December): Despite external factors like the U.S. elections and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, yields continued to decline, reaching around 2.0% by the end of December, with the 1-year yield falling below 1% for the first time since 2009 [6]. 2. Investment Institutions' Role in Yield Decline - The continuous decline in government bond yields is closely linked to the central bank's monetary policy, which has been aimed at countering economic downturns through rate cuts and liquidity injections. The reserve requirement ratios for large financial institutions have decreased significantly, releasing over 10 trillion yuan in liquidity [7]. - In 2024, the People's Bank of China implemented several measures, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, which contributed to a bullish bond market. The expectation of continued monetary easing led investment institutions to increase their bond allocations [8]. - Investment institutions have significantly increased their bond trading activities, with total bond market transactions reaching 416.3 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.56%. Government bond transactions alone accounted for 125.14 trillion yuan, a 52.74% increase from the previous year [9][10]. 3. Potential Risks from Aggressive Bond Allocation - The aggressive increase in bond allocations by investment institutions, particularly among small and medium-sized banks and non-bank financial institutions, has led to a rapid rise in bond prices and a potential overshoot in yields. This has created a positive feedback loop where rising prices lead to increased expectations of further price increases [11][12]. - Regulatory authorities have issued multiple warnings regarding the risks associated with excessive leverage and trading behaviors in the bond market. Despite these warnings, trading enthusiasm remains high, with significant increases in leverage among investors [13][14]. - The market's current state, characterized by high bond prices and low yields, poses risks of a market correction, particularly for institutions focused on yield management. A potential sell-off could trigger panic and exacerbate market volatility [15]. 4. Recommendations for Regulatory and Institutional Actions - Regulatory authorities should enhance communication and supervision to stabilize investor sentiment and guide institutions towards rational trading practices. This includes increasing the frequency of market communications and conducting periodic sell operations to cool down the market [16][17]. - Investment institutions are advised to optimize their asset allocation strategies, diversify their portfolios, and improve risk management practices to mitigate potential market risks. This includes adjusting the duration of bond holdings and maintaining a proportion of liquid assets to address potential redemption pressures [18][19].