Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in egg futures prices is attributed to rising feed costs driven by trade issues and a subsequent increase in spot egg prices, which has provided support for futures contracts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - From April 1 to April 16, egg futures prices increased by 7.4%, with the main contract reaching 3078 yuan per 500 kg, up 2.87% on April 16 [2][3]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas rose from 3.06 yuan per jin to approximately 3.4 yuan per jin since early April [3][4]. - The main contract's open interest reached 173,000 lots, the highest in three years, indicating intense market speculation [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Egg consumption demand has been consistently increasing, supported by a 4.6% year-on-year growth in retail sales, with restaurant income rising by 4.7% in the first quarter [5]. - Despite a 5.21% year-on-year decline in egg sales volume to 68,210 tons, significant increases were noted in major markets like Beijing and Guangdong, with Beijing's supply up 19.1% [5]. - The inventory levels of laying hens remain high, with 1.318 billion hens recorded in March, a 6.8% year-on-year increase, indicating a stable supply [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding future price trends, emphasizing the need to monitor feed costs and the culling of laying hens, which could impact supply [7]. - Current egg prices are near the breakeven point for poultry farming businesses, suggesting that producers may not actively cull hens despite rising prices [7][9]. - The outlook for egg prices post-September appears weaker, with concerns about potential losses in the poultry industry by 2026, although optimism remains for 2025 [9].
鸡蛋期货飙升7.4％！消费增长支撑蛋价，贸易商称货好卖了，后市还会涨吗
Hua Xia Shi Bao·2025-04-17 03:06