海尔智家(600690)1Q25预览：营收与利润端有望较快增长

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 9% and a net profit growth of around 14% in Q1 2025, with full-year projections of 6% revenue growth and 13% net profit growth for 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Q1 2025 Performance Expectations - The air conditioning business transformation has shown effectiveness, with significant retail volume growth of 76% online and 31% offline, leading to an estimated 10% growth in domestic air conditioning sales and revenue [2]. - The company is innovating through product iterations and scenario solutions, expecting mid to low double-digit growth in refrigerator and washing machine revenue, despite mixed retail performance in these categories [2]. - The company anticipates an 8% growth in domestic revenue, driven by expected growth in kitchen and water appliances of approximately 12% and 8%, respectively [2]. - The overseas market is projected to grow by around 10%, with expectations of stable or positive growth in Europe and significant growth in other regions [2]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve by 0.3 percentage points to 7.2%, resulting in a 14% increase in net profit [2]. Group 2: Full-Year 2025 Projections - For the full year 2025, the company expects revenue growth of approximately 6% and net profit growth of 13%, with specific growth rates for major product categories [3]. - The company has a low exposure to tariff-affected products, which is expected to minimize the impact of cost increases on consumers, allowing for potential market share gains [3]. - The North American revenue is projected to grow slightly by around 1%, while European revenue is expected to continue high single-digit growth due to brand positioning and management changes [3]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains a "buy" rating and has adjusted the target price down by 5% to 32.80 yuan, corresponding to a 13 times P/E ratio for 2026 [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 6.9% and 7.7%, respectively, with projected revenues reaching 302.96 billion yuan and 318.43 billion yuan [4]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted slightly, with expected net profits of 21.18 billion yuan and 23.65 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 13% and 11.6% respectively [4].