头部跨境电商狂揽超六成大湾区物流新增面积，5月关税大考如何破局

Core Insights - The cross-border e-commerce market is experiencing explosive growth, leading to a restructuring of traditional logistics and warehousing models, particularly in South China [1][4] - The Greater Bay Area logistics market is projected to reach a record supply of 3.94 million square meters in 2024, with over 60% of this space being leased by leading cross-border e-commerce companies [4][5] - The logistics market in the Greater Bay Area is facing mixed influences, with external pressures from trade friction and rising tariffs, while domestic demand growth may alleviate some downward pressure [4][11] Market Supply and Demand - The total logistics stock in the Greater Bay Area is expected to increase by 20.9% year-on-year to 20.97 million square meters by the end of 2024, with Foshan surpassing Hong Kong as the largest logistics market in the region [5][10] - The logistics market has seen a significant structural change, with net absorption declining by 8.3% year-on-year to 2.688 million square meters in 2024, despite record-high new supply [9][10] - Cross-border e-commerce has become the core driving force for the logistics warehousing market in the Greater Bay Area since the end of 2019, with major players like Temu, Shein, AliExpress, and TikTokShop leasing 67.3% of the new supply in 2024 [9][10] Regional Insights - The logistics real estate market in the Greater Bay Area is divided into four sub-markets: Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing, Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou, Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen, and Hong Kong, with the Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing area accounting for over 40% of the total supply in 2024 [6][10] - The logistics market is expected to continue expanding, with a projected total supply of 13.503 million square meters over the next three years, leading to a total stock of 27.093 million square meters by the end of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.2% [11][12] Impact of Tariffs - The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on cross-border e-commerce is a significant concern, as 34.2% of China's cross-border e-commerce exports in the first half of 2024 were directed to the U.S., which could affect logistics demand and rental levels in the Greater Bay Area [12][13] - The introduction of new tariffs on small packages under $800 by the U.S. is expected to influence market dynamics, prompting some businesses to consider shifting focus to emerging markets in Europe and Southeast Asia [13][14]