Eli Lilly's Experimental Weight Loss Pill Succeeded in Its First Pivotal Trial. Is It Time to Buy?

Core Insights - The obesity drug market is projected to grow significantly, with Morgan Stanley estimating it could reach $144 billion by 2030, a more than 15-fold increase from current levels [2] - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate the market with GLP-1 receptor agonists, which require weekly injections, but there is a shift towards developing oral alternatives [2][3] Company Developments - Eli Lilly is advancing its oral GLP-1 treatment, orforglipron, which has shown promising results in the Achieve-1 phase 3 clinical trial, indicating potential for significant weight loss [4][11] - The Achieve-1 study demonstrated that orforglipron reduced weight by 2.8% to 5.9% compared to placebo, depending on the dosage [9] - Eli Lilly's existing oral GLP-1 drug, Rybelsus, generated $3.6 billion in sales last year, but remains a fraction of the $27.2 billion from injectable semaglutide [5] Market Potential - Orforglipron's small-molecule formulation may enhance patient compliance compared to existing oral options, potentially positioning it as a top seller in the anti-obesity market [7] - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, approved for diabetes and weight management, saw sales surge to $16.5 billion in 2024, indicating strong market performance [12] Industry Context - The pharmaceutical industry faces challenges due to staffing changes at the FDA, which may impact the pace of drug approvals, creating uncertainty for drugmaker stocks [14]