Where Will Moderna Be in 5 Years?

Core Viewpoint - Moderna has experienced significant fluctuations in stock performance and earnings since the peak of its COVID-19 vaccine sales, but it has a promising pipeline of products that could lead to future growth [1][4][10] Group 1: Current Performance - Demand for COVID vaccinations has declined, impacting Moderna's revenue, which fell from a peak of over $19 billion in 2022 to$3.2 billion last year [4][2] - Moderna's stock has dropped more than 90% since its peak in 2021 due to disappointing earnings and performance [4][1] Group 2: Future Prospects - The company aims to bring as many as 10 products to market by 2027, including vaccines for cytomegalovirus (CMV), personalized cancer, and norovirus, all currently in phase 3 trials [5][6] - Moderna's clinical trial success rate is higher than the industry average, with an 83% probability of success for phase 3 trials compared to 69% for traditional biopharma [7] - The company predicts a compound annual growth rate of 25%, potentially increasing revenue to $6 billion by 2028 as new products are launched [8] Group 3: Research and Development Strategy - Moderna is adjusting its R&D investments, with respiratory vaccine research accounting for half of its investment from 2024 to 2025, and oncology research expected to rise significantly from 2026 to 2028 [9] - By 2030, Moderna is likely to have multiple products across various treatment areas, indicating a potential new phase of revenue growth [10]