楼市是否有机会触底：看五个指标信号

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the real estate market is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon, with expectations shifting due to anticipated monetary easing starting in 2025 [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that real estate sales and prices will stabilize in the second half of 2025, attributing this to a fundamental policy shift that liberates local governments from reliance on land finance [2] - Goldman Sachs is less optimistic, forecasting a potential decline in housing prices by 20%-25% by the end of 2025, with new home prices stabilizing by the end of 2025 and second-hand home prices stabilizing in 2026 [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the real estate market requires a trend-based analysis rather than short-term fluctuations, highlighting the need for five key indicators to confirm a market bottom [4] - The first indicator is the inventory de-stocking cycle returning to a healthy range of 12-24 months, with the current cycle shortening from 31 months in 2021 to 25 months in early 2025 [5] - The second indicator is the sales area returning to a balanced value, with a historical model suggesting a reasonable annual sales volume of 1.08 billion square meters at a 65% urbanization rate [7] Group 3 - The third indicator is the stabilization of second-hand home prices, which are seen as a more accurate reflection of market prices, with a year-on-year decline of 7.3% in the first quarter across 70 cities [9] - The fourth indicator is the recovery of developer confidence, indicated by a land premium rate exceeding 8% for three consecutive months, with an average premium rate of 13.6% in the first quarter across 300 cities [11] - The fifth indicator highlights the importance of policy, noting that the impact of trade wars may shift policy focus towards exports, which could affect the overall market outlook [12]