BUD APAC(HK:01876) 智通财经网·2025-04-21 03:43Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is expected to be a strategic adjustment period for Budweiser APAC rather than a harvest period, with short-term performance likely pressured by reform pains and external shocks. Improvements in channel transformation and cost control could lay the foundation for a medium to long-term recovery in the Chinese market share [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2024, Budweiser APAC's sales volume in the Chinese market is projected to decline by 11.8% year-on-year, with a ton price decrease of 1.4%, resulting in a market share contraction of 149 basis points compared to the previous year [2] - From 2018 to 2024, the company's sales CAGR in China is -2.6%, while the CAGR for beer production among large-scale enterprises in the country is -1.3%, indicating a downward trend in market share [2] - Despite management's goal to increase market share this year through inventory optimization, family channel expansion, and innovative product launches, reversing the trend is deemed challenging [2] Group 2: Regional Insights - In the Asia-Pacific East region, strong growth is observed in 2024, with sales and ASP increasing by 3.6% and 8.7% respectively, while market share in South Korea expanded by 349 basis points, reaching a ten-year high [3] - Starting in April, the company raised the ex-factory price of beer in South Korea by 2.9% to counter rising import material costs, with other international brewers also implementing price increases [3] - In India, the net revenue from high-end and super high-end products is expected to grow nearly 20% year-on-year, with Budweiser's market share doubling over the past five years, making it one of Budweiser's top four global markets [3] Group 3: Strategic Challenges - The company is undergoing deep adjustments in organizational structure and channel strategy due to new leadership, facing three core challenges: channel transformation pressure, management efficiency improvement, and external environment risks [4] - The nightlife channel is experiencing sluggish growth, while the expansion of dining and family channels requires time [4] - The company has largely hedged its costs for the year, and the new CEO has extensive supply chain operation experience, making the overall cost risk manageable [4]