研究报告 Research Report 30 Jun 2025 中国必需消费 China (Overseas) Staples 中国必选消费品 6 月成本报告：大豆价格年初以来涨超 10% June CGCI: Soybean Price Has Risen by More Than 10% YTD [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 市盈率 P/E | | 股票名称 | 评级 目标价 | PE(2025E) | PE(2026E) | | 百威亚太 | Neutral 7.90 | n.a. | n.a. | | 海底捞 | Outperform 23.00 | 15 | 14 | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform 35.60 | n.a. | n.a. | | 康师傅 | Outperform 17.74 | 15 | 14 | | 中国飞鹤 | Outperform 7.00 | 12 | 11 | | 颐海国际 | Outperform 18. ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is under short-term pressure, but there are medium-term strong alpha layout opportunities [2][11] - The consumer goods sector is focused on "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" and "market share improvement" as two main investment opportunities [3][13] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From June 9 to June 13, the food and beverage sector and the CSI 300 index had declines of -4.37% and -0.25% respectively. Specific sectors include: - Health products (+2.44%) - Baked goods (-0.72%) - Meat products (-1.15%) - Soft drinks (-1.75%) - Snacks (-1.85%) - Dairy products (-2.41%) - Pre-processed foods (-3.00%) - Other alcoholic beverages (-3.43%) - Fermented seasonings III (-3.57%) - Baijiu III (-5.31%) - Beer (-6.61%) [1][18] Liquor Sector Insights - The baijiu sector saw a decline of -5.31%, underperforming the overall food and beverage sector and the CSI 300. This is attributed to: 1. Price declines of major baijiu products ahead of the 618 shopping festival 2. Potential impacts from "drinking bans" on certain consumption scenarios - Current prices for 2025 Moutai (original/scattered) are 2000 RMB/1960 RMB, down by 115 RMB/70 RMB from last week. The price for Pu'er (8th generation) is 930 RMB, down by 10 RMB from last week. The baijiu index PE-TTM is currently at 17.81X, which is 3.40% below the reasonable low level over the past decade [2][11][12]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The health products sector saw a positive growth of +2.44%. The report remains optimistic about investment opportunities in health products, soft drinks, and snacks, especially in Q2 due to low performance baselines. The focus is on companies that can achieve "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" and "market share improvement" [3][13][16]. - The soft drink sector experienced a decline of -1.75%, with notable companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage facing slight declines. The report suggests monitoring the demand resilience as the peak season approaches [13][16]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the soft drink and low-alcohol sectors include: Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulu, Dongpeng Beverage, and others [4][17]. - For the liquor sector, strong alpha companies benefiting from concentration increases are recommended, including Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [4][17]. - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" and "market share improvement" are highlighted, including: Lihigh Food, Ximai Food, and others [4][17].

智通财经6月13日讯（编辑 胡家荣）本周港股三大指数涨跌不一。截至周五收盘，恒生指数累计上涨0.42%，报23892.56点；科技指数累计下跌0.89%，报 5239.71点；国企指数累计上涨0.30%，报8655.33点。 注：恒生指数的本周表现 中国稀土领涨市场 从本周表现来看，中国稀土(00769.HK)、云峰金融(00376.HK)涨幅居前，而百威亚太(01876.HK)、小鹏汽车-W(09868.HK)跌幅居前。 中国稀土的上涨与稀土出口松绑相关，在本周累计上涨69.41%。消息方面，近期商务部回应，对符合规定的稀土出口许可申请中方将予以批准。中信建投 指出，受出口或逐步放松预期影响，市场上调稀土原料报价。 云峰金融的走强与蚂蚁集团近日公布利好相关，在本周累计上涨28.98%。消息方面，蚂蚁国际在6月12日宣布计划在香港、新加坡申请稳定币牌照，并布局 区块链跨境支付，云峰金融作为马云关联的金融平台，被视为直接受益标的，当天盘中一度涨超98%。 而百威亚太受一季度业绩影响，在本周累计下跌9.15%。该公司在一季度中国区销售额同比下滑11%，渠道去库存和餐饮消费疲软导致销量持续疲弱，机构 预测Q2销量仍 ...

港股恒生指数日内跌超1%，恒生科技指数跌1.78%，小鹏汽车(09868.HK)跌近6%，快手(01024.HK)、百 威亚太(01876.HK)均跌超5%。 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.63%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising by 1.74%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 2.78% [1] - The film sector saw significant gains, with Alibaba Pictures rising by 11.58% and Maoyan Entertainment increasing by 4.42%, attributed to a recovery in the film market and expectations for a strong summer box office in 2024 [1] - Pharmaceutical stocks experienced widespread increases, with notable gains from companies like Four Seasons Medicine (up 14.56%) and King’s Ray Biotech (up 16.14%) [1] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - The pharmaceutical sector is benefiting from multiple positive factors, with 34 domestic innovative drugs approved for market by the end of May, nearing last year's total [2] - Chinese pharmaceutical companies showcased 71 original research results at ASCO, indicating a rapid advancement in innovation and research capabilities [2] Group 3: Technology and Other Sectors - Technology-related stocks, including short video and SaaS concepts, showed strong performance, with Kingdee International rising by 11.8% and Tencent Music increasing by 5.58% [2] - New consumption concepts and holiday-related stocks also performed well, with H&H International Holdings rising by 8.81% and Blucor soaring by 22.34% [3] Group 4: Declining Sectors - Gold and non-ferrous metal stocks experienced collective declines, with companies like Zhenfeng Gold dropping by 6.06% [3] - Other sectors such as beer, cosmetics, and tobacco also saw declines, with Budweiser Asia Pacific down by 2.06% [3][4]

智通财经APP获悉，市场关注中美经贸磋商机制首次会议，港股三大指数全天震荡走高，恒指成功站上 两万四大关，国指、恒科指则双双自4月低点升逾20%，迈向技术性牛市。截止收盘，恒生指数涨1.63% 或388.89点，报24181.43点，全日成交额为2458.28亿港元；恒生国企指数涨1.74%，报8780.13点；恒生 科技指数涨2.78%，报5433.23点。 国泰海通海外策略团队研报指出，今年港股明显跑赢A股，背后反映宏观偏弱背景下港股稀缺性资产更 具吸引力，类似2012—2014年移动互联浪潮下港股比A股率先崛起。互联网、新消费、创新药、红利等 板块的稀缺资产在港股更集中，与当前AI应用、新消费等产业趋势相关度更高，即港股资产的稀缺性 所在。随着外部环境对风险偏好的扰动减缓，来自基本面和资金面的修复力量望推动港股进一步向上。 蓝筹股表现 快手-W(01024)领涨蓝筹。截至收盘，涨5.58%，报62.4港元，成交额67.19亿港元，贡献恒指16.34点。 高盛指出，快手旗下可灵AI的年化收入运行率于3月突破1亿美元，其后4月和5月的月度付费金额亦超 过1亿元人民币，相信运行率将超越公司指引及市场预期。该行 ...

初夏傍晚，位于北京隆福寺的京A精酿餐吧人声鼎沸，冰凉的鲜啤是都市人缓解疲惫的热门选择。这并 非孤例，记者走访全国多个城市发现，从社区小店到连锁品牌，精酿啤酒正以个性化风味和品质体验， 成为消费升级的生动注脚。天眼查数据显示，精酿啤酒相关企业已超2.4万家。这股由消费者驱动的精 酿热潮，不仅为独立厂牌带来机遇，也勾勒出啤酒行业高端化的轮廓，敏锐的啤酒巨头也已纷纷入局， 以规模化运作抢占"金字塔尖"。 然而，精酿啤酒渐成红海，寻求新增长的啤酒巨头们，正将目光投向更广阔的边界：依托成熟的渠道与 供应链优势，以"啤酒+汽水"的组合拳，向非酒精饮料市场拓展战略纵深。啤酒杯旁，汽水瓶已摆上餐 桌。 ● 本报记者 杨梓岩 精酿热潮映照消费升级 周五傍晚七点，初夏的气温尚未完全回落。记者走进位于北京隆福寺的京A精酿餐吧，凉气和淡淡的啤 酒花香气涌来。吧台后面，几位工作人员正忙着操作不锈钢酒头，不同颜色的啤酒，从琥珀色到深棕 色，再到黑色，快速注入冰镇过的玻璃杯，杯壁立刻挂满水珠。 记者看到，尽管是工作日，吧台前凳子已被坐满，长条木桌旁也三五成群。桌上摆着各种尺寸的啤酒 杯，杯口大多残留着白色泡沫。交谈声、清脆的碰杯声混合在一 ...

2024年我国社会消费品零售总额是48.79万亿元，同比增长3.5%，首次低于我国同期GDP增速5%。 在消费增速趋缓的背景下，快消品行业逐步进入以"存量竞争"为主的新阶段。过去依赖市场红利高速增长的时代已经过去，当前行业正转向以效率提升、 品牌优化和结构调整为核心的新常态。 截止目前，「新经销」共统计131家快消品企业年报营收、净利数据，并按营收高低进行排序。 | | | | 2024年快消品上市企业财报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分类 | 序号 | 公司名称 | 营收(亿元) | 同比 | 净利(亿元) | 同比 | | | 1 | 康师傅 | 806. 51 | 0. 30% | 37. 34 | 19. 80% | | | 2 | 农夫山泉 | 428. 96 | 0. 50% | 121. 23 | 0. 40% | | | 3 | 统一 | 303. 32 | 6. 09% | 18. 49 | 10. 90% | | | 4 | 中国食品 | 214. 92 | 0. 20% | 8.61 | 3. 40% | | ...

消息面上，电子商务相关方面近期公开表示，618大促是年度消费提振行动的重要节点，要发挥出618在 刺激消费方面的潜力和优势，需要政府从政策端通过以旧换新等补贴加以引导和支持。同时具备条件的 地方可在618期间推出"定向消费券"，结合地域消费特点，向农村市场、下沉市场及重点产品倾斜，有 效提升特定区域及特定消费群体的消费热情。随着政策红利持续释放，下半年消费市场有望迎来更强劲 的增长动能。 6月6日，港股市场午后V型反弹，短视频、食品饮料、家电、盲盒等大消费方向涨势居前。港股消费指 数成份股中，快手-W涨超7%，统一企业中国、康师傅控股涨超2%，农夫山泉、泡泡玛特、海尔智家、 万洲国际、百威亚太涨超1%。港股消费ETF（159735）实时换手率突破5%，市场热度较高。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪港股消费指数，是"更新的消费"，相较A股消费以白酒高端消费为主，港 股消费板块中电商、消费电子、新能源车、餐饮、旅游、文娱传媒、国潮服装等新型消费比例更高，服 务消费和大众消费占比也更高，或更能充分反映本轮大力提振消费政策驱动下的消费景气复苏。 华福证券表示，从政策层面来看，国家持续推动消费提振，例如国家金融监督 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 大众品：看好四大主题逻辑。5 月 26 日-5 月 30 日大众品中保健品仍延续良好态势（前期持 续推荐），而零食/乳制品则表现相对平稳，大众品方面目前我们重点推荐四条主线：①降本控 费逻辑；②新消费逻辑；③具备强α&Q2 存潜在业绩弹性标的；④主题性预期标的（乳制品/ 食品连锁等）。 板块投资建议 【首推】软饮料&低酒精"新品+低基数+即将迎来旺季+成本红利"下的投资机会：李子园/ 承德露露/东鹏饮料/百润股份/香飘飘等。 【港股食饮】建议关注：青啤 H、华润啤酒、百威、蒙牛乳业、卫龙美味、悠然牧业、康师傅、 统一等。 【白酒板块】推荐强α&持续享受集中度提升红利的白酒龙头酒企：山西汾酒/贵州茅台等。 【大众品】建议关注：①降本控费逻辑：西麦食品/五芳斋/李子园/立高食品等；②新消费逻辑 （市场空间大/有渠道或品类红利）：H&H/仙乐健康/康比特/百龙创园/卫龙美味/盐津铺子/甘 源食品等。③具备强 α/Q2 存潜在业绩弹性标的（结合基数）：三只松鼠/农夫山泉/青岛啤酒/ 燕京啤酒等；④ 主题性预期标的（乳制品/食品连锁等)：伊利股份/新乳业/周黑鸭/巴比食品 等。 食品饮料 证 ...