2025 年 2 月 27 日 食品、饮料及烟草: 中性 授权转发报告/ 业绩点评报告 百威亚太 (1876 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$11.00) | 华兴证券(香港)对比市场预测 (差幅%) | | --- | 注：所示市场预测来源于彭博。正差幅 = 华兴证券(香港) 预测高于市场预测；负差幅 = 华兴证券(香港)预测低于市 场预测。 2025E 2026E 营收 (US$mn) 6,540 (+1%) 6,818 (+2%) EPS (US$) 0.06 (+4%) 0.07 (+8%) 战略调整和年初较佳表现为 2025 年市场份额提升铺平道路 此港股通报告之英文版本于 2025 年 2 月 27 日中午 12 时 30 分由华兴证券(香港)发布。 中文版由华兴证券的姜雪烽（证券分析师登记编号：S1680519070001）审核。如果您 想进一步讨论本报告所述观点，请与您在华兴证券的销售代表联系。 今年春节期间销售情况鼓舞人心。百威亚太公告了 2024 年业绩，符合预期，收入同比下 降 7.0%，销量下降 8.8%，但被平均销售单价（ASP）同比上涨 1.9%所抵消。4Q24 的业 绩恶化主要是 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) with a current price of HKD 8.33 [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continued trend of strong performance in the eastern regions while the western regions face challenges, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding expectations [1][8] - Budweiser APAC's 2024 revenue is reported at USD 6.246 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.9%, while normalized EBITDA is USD 1.813 billion, down 14.8% year-on-year [5][11] - The company is focusing on high-end and super high-end product strategies, expanding its distribution cities from 220 in 2023 to 235 in 2024 [7][8] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For the full year 2024, Budweiser APAC achieved revenue of USD 6.246 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 8.9% and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.813 billion, down 14.8% [5][11] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of USD 1.142 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 11% [5] Regional Performance - Eastern region showed strong growth in Q4 2024 with revenue up 7.8% and volume up 8.5%, while the western region faced a 17% decline in volume [6][7] - The Chinese market continued to struggle in Q4 2024, with a volume decline of 18.9% due to inventory reduction and unfavorable channel mix [7] Management Changes and Dividend Policy - A new CEO, Cheng Yanjun, will take office on April 1, 2025, indicating a commitment to improving the Chinese business [8] - The board proposed a dividend of USD 750 million for the 2024 fiscal year, a 7% increase year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 103% [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to USD 795 million and USD 861 million, respectively, reflecting a 12% and 14% reduction [8][11] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18x for 2025, 16x for 2026, and 15x for 2027, indicating a favorable outlook in the high-end market segment [8][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10, while the current price is HKD 8.66 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of USD 6.246 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.807 billion for the year 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.0% and 6.3% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 778 million, showing a decrease of 15.2% [2][7]. - The fourth quarter results showed revenue and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.142 billion and USD 228 million respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 11.0% and 7.2% [2][7]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of USD 750 million, which is a 7% increase, resulting in a payout ratio of 103.25% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, Budweiser APAC's total sales volume decreased by 8.8%, with a significant decline in the Chinese market, where sales volume and price per ton saw year-on-year declines of 11.8% and 1.4% respectively [6][7]. - The company experienced a mixed performance across regions, with the Asia Pacific West region facing challenges while the Asia Pacific East region showed strong growth, particularly in South Korea [6][7]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 50.4%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points [6][7]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2025, the company aims to prioritize market share recovery and has implemented significant management changes to drive this strategy. The new leadership is expected to bring renewed energy to the company's operations [6][7]. - The company plans to enhance its product offerings and increase marketing expenditures, particularly in key regions such as Fujian and Guangdong [6][7]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is adjusted to USD 815 million, with a corresponding PE ratio of 18 times [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Budweiser APAC to "Hold" with a target price of HKD 9.36, reflecting a potential upside of 8.1% from the current price of HKD 8.66 [1][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that the Chinese beer market is unlikely to see significant improvement in demand until 2025, with sales, revenue, and profit margins expected to remain under pressure in the short term [1]. - The company's strategy to focus on high-end and core++ products may not yield immediate benefits, and the high revenue share from ultra-premium products could negatively impact overall sales performance [1]. - Despite having clear product and channel plans for 2025, the ability to translate these into improved performance remains uncertain [1]. - Following a significant stock price increase, the current valuation (19x 2025 P/E) is considered less attractive [1]. Sales and Market Performance - In Q4 2024, Budweiser APAC's sales in China fell sharply by 18.9% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 14.8% in Q3 2024 [1]. - The company plans to focus on high-end products, particularly the Budweiser brand, while being more selective in investments in ultra-premium brands [1]. - The shift towards high-end family channels may further tilt the channel structure away from on-premise consumption [1]. Regional Insights - In South Korea, Budweiser APAC recorded high single-digit sales and revenue growth in Q4 2024, with management confident that price increases will drive growth and margin recovery [1]. - The company raised prices for high-end and ultra-premium products by 8.1% in November 2024, which is expected to significantly benefit revenue and profit margins in 2025 [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected at USD 6.134 billion, a decrease of 1.8% from 2024, with net profit expected to rise to USD 790 million, reflecting an 8.8% increase [7][16]. - The report anticipates EBITDA margins to recover to pre-pandemic levels in the South Korean market, supported by price increases and operational efficiency improvements [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HKD 9.78, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 7.84 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The overall performance is led by strong results in the South Korean and Indian markets, with an increase in dividend payout ratio reflecting future operational confidence [2][6]. - For 2024, Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of USD 6.246 billion, a decline of 8.9% year-on-year, with normalized EBITDA at USD 1.807 billion, down 10.7% [6][16]. - The company faced challenges in the China market, with a significant drop in sales and revenue due to increased competition and changing consumer behavior [6][16]. - The Indian market showed robust growth, particularly in the premium segment, achieving nearly 20% growth in high-end products and doubling market share over the past five years [6][16]. - The South Korean market performed exceptionally well, with high single-digit sales growth leading to double-digit revenue growth, driven by product mix optimization and market share expansion [6][16]. - The report maintains a positive long-term growth outlook for Budweiser APAC, particularly as consumer spending recovers in China, supported by strong performance in South Korea [6][16]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Budweiser APAC show a recovery trend, with expected revenues of USD 6.563 billion in 2025, growing to USD 7.181 billion by 2027 [5][16]. - Net profit is projected to rebound to USD 837 million in 2025, with a further increase to USD 1.067 billion by 2027 [5][16]. - The company’s dividend yield is expected to remain attractive, with a payout ratio increasing to 96% in 2024, up from 82% in 2023 [6][16]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of distribution cities to 235, enhancing market reach and operational efficiency [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Budweiser APAC [2] Core Insights - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of USD 6.246 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 726 million, down 14.8% year-on-year. The company proposed a dividend increase from 5.29 cents per share in 2023 to 5.66 cents in 2024, totaling USD 750 million, with a payout ratio of 103.25% [7] - The report anticipates a recovery in demand in 2025, contingent on improved conditions in the restaurant and nightlife sectors, which could lead to a rebound in beer sales [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its high-end product offerings and increasing its distribution channels, with the number of cities served growing to 235 by the end of 2024 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Budweiser APAC are as follows: - 2023: USD 6.856 billion - 2024: USD 6.246 billion - 2025E: USD 6.665 billion - 2026E: USD 6.971 billion - 2027E: USD 7.191 billion - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: USD 852 million - 2024: USD 726 million - 2025E: USD 788 million - 2026E: USD 838 million - 2027E: USD 881 million - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 19 for 2025, 18 for 2026, and 17 for 2027 [6][8]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性 亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致 的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited 百威亞太控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1876） 截至2024年12月31日止年度的全年業績、 末期股息建議 及 2024年第四季度財務資料 百威亞太控股有限公司（「百威亞太」或「本公司」，連同其附屬公司統稱「本集團」）董事 會（「董事會」）宣佈本公告隨附本集團截至2024年12月31日止年度的業績。 董事會建議本公司將向股東派發的每股末期股息由2023年的5.29美分增加至2024年的 5.66美分。 預期建議2024年末期股息將於2025年6月30日或之前向股東派發，惟須待股東於應屆 2025年股東週年大會批准後方可作實，且視乎有關暫停辦理股份過戶登記手續日期、記 錄日期及付款日期的另行公佈而定。 於開曼群島股東名冊總冊登記的股東將自動以美元收取其股息，而於股東名冊香港分冊 登記的股東將自動以 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HK$11.60, reflecting a potential upside of 61% from the current price of HK$7.19 [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing challenges in the Chinese market due to macroeconomic factors, high inventory levels, and a shift in channel dynamics, which negatively impacted sales and pricing [8][9]. - Despite strong sales momentum in the South Korean market, price increases are expected to contribute less to revenue growth moving forward [8]. - The report projects a significant decline in normalized EBITDA for Q4 2024, estimating a year-on-year decrease of 25.8% due to reduced sales and rising costs [9][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at US$6,280 million, down from US$6,305 million previously, reflecting a 0.4% decrease [14]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at US$784 million, a reduction of 6.5% from the previous estimate of US$839 million [14]. - The report anticipates a normalized EBITDA margin decline due to increased costs and lower sales volumes, particularly in the Chinese market [9][13]. Market Analysis - The Chinese market continues to face challenges from a high base effect and weak consumer demand, leading to a projected decline in sales volume [8][9]. - The South Korean market has shown resilience with strong sales, but the impact of price increases is expected to diminish [8]. - The report emphasizes the need for Budweiser APAC to navigate these market dynamics effectively to maintain profitability [9]. Valuation - The target price of HK$11.60 is based on a P/E ratio of 22.4 times the estimated earnings for 2025, which is below the historical average [15]. - The current valuation is considered attractive, with a projected dividend yield of 5.4% for 2025 [15]. - The report suggests that Budweiser APAC's valuation remains compelling compared to its peers in the industry [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HKD 9.39, representing a potential upside of 27.3% [1][4] Core Views - Short-term performance is pressured by challenges in the China market, but the company's long-term competitive strength remains intact [1] - The company's premium/super-premium product portfolio in China is expected to rebound as consumer spending recovers [1] - In Korea, the company has enhanced its competitiveness through increased investment and new product launches, with an 8.1% price increase on premium/super-premium products expected to boost profitability in 2025 [1] Regional Performance Asia Pacific West (China, India, Vietnam) - China market: Q3 2024 volume declined by 14.2%, average selling price (ASP) fell by 2.1%, leading to a 16.1% revenue drop [2] - India market: Continued strong growth with double-digit increases in premium/super-premium products, which account for 2/3 of India's revenue [2] - Overall APAC West: Volume and ASP declined by 13.5% and 1.9% respectively in Q3 2024 [2] Asia Pacific East (Korea, Japan, New Zealand) - Korea market: Revenue grew by mid-teens in Q3 2024, driven by mid-single-digit volume growth and product mix optimization [2] - Overall APAC East: Volume and ASP increased by 3.9% and 11.4% respectively in Q3 2024 [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue: USD 1.705 billion, down 9.4% YoY [3] - Q3 2024 normalized EBITDA: USD 479 million, down 16.6% YoY [3] - Q3 2024 net profit: Down 25.0% YoY [3] - 9M 2024 revenue: USD 5.104 billion, down 6.1% YoY [3] - 9M 2024 normalized EBITDA: USD 1.579 billion, down 6.2% YoY [3] - 9M 2024 net profit: USD 777 million, down 11.6% YoY [3] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue: USD 6.531 billion, down 4.7% YoY [7] - 2025E revenue: USD 6.740 billion, up 3.2% YoY [7] - 2026E revenue: USD 7.000 billion, up 3.9% YoY [7] - 2024E net profit: USD 751 million, down 11.7% YoY [7] - 2025E net profit: USD 830 million, up 10.5% YoY [7] - 2026E net profit: USD 924 million, up 11.3% YoY [7] Valuation Metrics - 2025E P/E: 19x (down from 22x average for 2024-25) [1] - 2024E P/E: 16.6x [7] - 2025E P/E: 15.0x [7] - 2026E P/E: 13.5x [7] Market Position - The company continues to gain market share in Korea through expansion in both on-premise and off-premise channels [2] - New product launches (e.g., Cass, HANMAC) in Korea have received positive market feedback [2]

Industry and Company * **Company**: Budweiser Brewing Company, AIPAC Ltd. * **Industry**: Beer and beverage industry, specifically focusing on premium and super-premium segments. Core Views and Arguments * **Performance Impact**: The first nine months of 2024 were impacted by industry weakness in China, partially offset by strong performance in South Korea and India. * **Market Share Gains**: Continued commercial momentum in South Korea and India drove sustained market share gains and revenue per hectolitre growth. * **Premiumization**: The company is leading the premiumization of the beer category, with premium and super-premium portfolio contributing approximately two-thirds of revenue. * **Innovation**: Volume and revenue contribution from innovations within the Budweiser family, including Supreme and Magnum, continue to increase. * **Channel Expansion**: Revenue contribution from the in-home channel grew as a result of ongoing efforts to premiumize the channel. * **Geographic Expansion**: The company's geographic expansion strategy for the Budweiser brands is on track. * **Sustainability**: The company has made progress in sustainability initiatives, maintaining a low-risk rating from Sustainalytics. Key Financials * **Total Volumes**: Decreased by 8.1% * **Revenue**: Decreased by 6.1% * **Revenue per Hectolitre**: Grew by 2.2% * **Normalized EBITDA**: Decreased by 6.2% * **Normalized EBITDA Margin**: Decreased by four basis points * **Gross Profit Margin**: Expanded by 108 basis points * **Cost of Sales**: Decreased by 8.1% China Market * **Performance**: Impacted by a soft industry, particularly from continued weakness in on-premise channels. * **Premiumization**: Leading the premiumization of the beer category, with premium and super-premium portfolio contributing approximately two-thirds of revenue. * **Innovation**: Volume and revenue contribution from innovations within the Budweiser family, including Supreme and Magnum, continue to increase. * **Channel Expansion**: Revenue contribution from the in-home channel grew as a result of ongoing efforts to premiumize the channel. * **Geographic Expansion**: The company's geographic expansion strategy for the Budweiser brands is on track. * **Sustainability**: The company has made progress in sustainability initiatives, maintaining a low-risk rating from Sustainalytics. South Korea Market * **Performance**: Revenues grew by mid-teens in the third quarter, driven by double-digit revenue per hectolitre increase and single-digit volume growth. * **Market Share**: Achieved a strong overall total market share gain, supported by share gains in both the on-premise and in-home channels, led by KAS. * **Innovation**: Further expanded Cast Light Zero Sugar in the third quarter with a campaign featuring South Korean Olympic fencing gold medalist Oh Sang-Wook. * **Geographic Expansion**: The company's geographic expansion strategy for the Budweiser brands is on track. * **Sustainability**: The company has made progress in sustainability initiatives, maintaining a low-risk rating from Sustainalytics. India Market * **Performance**: Business continued to outgrow the industry for the first nine months of the year, driven by double-digit net revenue growth within the premium and super-premium portfolio. * **Premiumization**: Premium and super-premium segments contributed more than two-thirds of revenue. * **Innovation**: The company has made progress in sustainability initiatives, maintaining a low-risk rating from Sustainalytics. Sustainability * **Sustainalytics Rating**: Maintained a low-risk rating from Sustainalytics, ranking 4th among 85 beer, wine and spirits companies and 7th out of 644 food products companies worldwide. * **Global Beer Responsible Day**: Kicked off campaigns across key markets to celebrate a Global Beer Responsible Day to promote smart drinking. * **Commitment**: A commitment the company has been championing for 17 years, in partnership with government and industry stakeholders. Future Outlook * **Premiumization**: The company remains committed to premiumization, with a focus on expanding its premium and super-premium portfolio. * **Geographic Expansion**: The company continues to expand its geographic footprint, targeting lower-tier cities and regions with high growth potential. * **Digitization**: The company is investing in digitization and system integration to improve processes and management visibility. * **Cost Management**: The company remains focused on cost management initiatives to improve efficiency and profitability.