研究报告 Research Report 30 Jan 2026 中国必需消费 China (Overseas) Staples 中国必选消费品 1 月成本报告：涨价现实弱于预期，成本仍处低位 January CGCI: Price Hikes Weaker than Expected, Costs Stay Low [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 市盈率 P/E | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 目标价 | PE(2025E) | PE(2026E) | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 7.90 | n.a. | n.a. | | 海底捞 | Outperform 18.22 | | 17 | 16 | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform 36.00 | | n.a. | n.a. | | 康师傅 | Outperform 17.74 | | 16 | 14 | | 中国飞鹤 | Outperform 7.00 | | 8 | ...

百威亞太控股有限公司（「本公司」）宣佈本公司董事（「董事」）會（「董事會」）委員 會將於2026年2月11日（星期三）（交易時段後）舉行會議，以審議及批准發佈截至 2025年12月31日止年度的經審核業績（「年度業績」），並考慮建議派發末期股息 （如有）。 本公司預期將於2026年2月12日（星期四）上午七時正（香港時間）或前後發佈年度 業績及建議派發末期股息（如有）的公告。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited 百威亞太控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1876） 批准截至2025年12月31日止年度 經審核業績及 派發末期股息建議的 董事會委員會會議日期 於本公告日期，本公司董事會包括聯席主席兼執行董事程衍俊先生、聯席主席兼 非執行董事鄧明瀟先生、非執行董事Fernando Tennenbaum先生及Ricardo Tadeu 先生，以 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - There is an intensified divergence among mid-to-high-end baijiu products, with no discount contraction observed in food and beverage categories [1]. - The report highlights that the wholesale prices of various baijiu brands have shown stability or slight changes, with some brands experiencing price increases while others remain flat or decrease [3][4][35]. - Discounts on representative products in condiments, liquid milk, and soft drinks have widened compared to the end of December, indicating a shift in pricing strategies [19][32]. Summary by Relevant Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) and Moutai 1935 are reported at 1600, 1580, and 630 yuan respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and -10 yuan compared to last month [35]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 830 yuan, reflecting a +10 yuan increase from the previous month [35]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 remains at 850 yuan, unchanged from last month [35]. Discount Trends - The average discount rate for condiments decreased from 87.1% to 85.0%, while liquid milk discounts fell from 62.8% to 61.4% [19][22]. - In contrast, discounts for beer, infant formula, and convenience foods remained stable, with beer discounts slightly increasing from 80.3% to 80.7% [20][22][32]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with an "Outperform" rating, including: - Guizhou Moutai - Wuliangye - Luzhou Laojiao - Qingdao Beer - China Feihe - Others [1].

2026.01.23 本文字数：2597，阅读时长大约4分钟 春节怎么过？年轻人给出了新答案 —— 有人告别温馨的团圆饭，出门寻觅地道年味；有人从喧嚣的社 交场抽身，宅家刷剧、宵夜，尽享松弛时光；还有人一边自律运动，一边用美食治愈身心…… 这一代 年轻人正接过春节的 "主理权"，用自己偏爱的方式，重新定义过年的模样。 在抖音，消费者正以更鲜活的姿态，诉说对新春的诉求与期待，在传统佳节里玩出万千过年新花样。这 种 "新年味" 的表达，也推动着过年消费从功能性的 "年货采购"，逐步转向融合情感与审美的 "新春生 活方式"。在此背景下，品牌该如何呼应 "新年味" 的潮流？又该如何借助抖音，将趋势洞察转化为实实 在在的生意增长？ 第一财经《消费就是这样・WECARE》栏目携手巨量引擎，推出年货节特辑。本期特邀百威亚太首席 市场营销官车祁（Matt Che）、巨量引擎直客业务家电家居 / 食饮健康 / 母婴宠物行业总经理陈晗尧， 与《第一财经》YiMagazine 总编辑赵嘉齐聚一堂，共同探讨食饮行业如何抓住 "新年味" 带来的机遇， 实现生意增长的全新突破。 "新年味"来袭，消费者需求呈现三大变化 要理解新年味，就需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how young consumers are redefining the celebration of the Spring Festival, moving from traditional family gatherings to personalized experiences that blend emotional and aesthetic elements into their celebrations [3][4]. Group 1: Changes in Consumer Demand - The concept of "gift-giving" during the Spring Festival is shifting from standardized purchases to personalized emotional expressions, with consumers seeking gifts that convey emotional connections [5]. - Consumption scenarios are expanding beyond traditional festive moments to include everyday activities, such as enjoying tea or health supplements after workouts, indicating a trend towards "daily integration" of Spring Festival consumption [5][6]. - Consumer demographics are becoming more segmented, with distinct groups identified based on preferences and characteristics, necessitating a deeper understanding of their unique needs for effective communication [6]. Group 2: Brand Strategies for New Year Flavor - Brands are encouraged to adopt a more nuanced understanding of consumers, focusing on product features and audience needs to strengthen brand presence and emotional connections [6]. - Suggestions for brands include creating ceremonial gift boxes to enhance the Spring Festival experience, focusing on sensory experiences, and engaging with trending content on platforms like Douyin [6][10]. - The case of Budweiser illustrates the importance of emotional resonance in product marketing, with their campaign emphasizing "small happiness" and integrating emotional themes into product design and consumer interaction [9][10]. Group 3: Leveraging Content and Innovation - High-quality content is essential for brands to engage consumers during the emotionally charged Spring Festival period, with a focus on creating "mind-blowing" content that resonates with users' real-life experiences [13]. - Brands can utilize various innovative formats, such as short dramas and celebrity marketing, to enhance brand exposure and emotional connection with consumers [14]. - Integrating online and offline marketing strategies is crucial for driving sales, particularly in the food and beverage sector, by linking online engagement with offline purchasing behaviors [14][16].

近日，花旗、摩根大通等多家大行发布了对百威亚太（01876.HK）的研报分析，普遍预测其2025年全年业绩不及预期，主要原因为中国市场需求疲 软。 花旗预测，百威亚太2025年下半年在中国市场的业务前景不及预期，全年销售和核心净利润预计下调3%和10%，且年底销售情况会因农历新年时间 较迟受到更大影响，预计其2026年营收利润下行的趋势将继续。对此，花旗将百威亚太的目标价从12.4港元降至11.4港元。 摩根大通则将百威亚太目标价由8.5港元下调至7.9港元。 其上周发布研报预测，百威亚太2025年自然销售额将下降6.4%，中国区业务持续走弱，虽然增加了广告和营销投放，销量和利润方面仍然承压；韩 国市场基数高、增长有所放缓；印度市场的强劲增长未能推动集团表现。 作为亚太地区最大的啤酒公司，百威亚太旗下经营着百威、科罗娜、福佳白、哈尔滨啤酒等超50个品牌。以往，中国市场是其最重要的增长引擎，现 在情况变了。 水芙蓉/摄 百威亚太全年业绩将于2月12日正式披露，不过从券商给出的预测来看，"新帅"还未能改变公司的下行趋势。 2025年上半年，百威亚太在中国区的啤酒销量同比减少8.2%，净收入下降9.5%，每百升收入 ...

运营商财经网讯 百威是世界知名的啤酒品牌，1876年诞生于美国，并在1984年就已经进入中国市场，成为当时珠江啤酒 第二大股东。2019年，百威英博拆分出百威亚太，并成功在港交所上市。 程衍俊在2025年4月获任为公司首席执行官，且是百威亚太近年来首位中国籍首席执行官。在他上任 后，对公司的战略、渠道与组织进行了系统性改革。而在2025年前三季度，百威亚太实现营业收入 46.91亿美元，净利润为5.94亿美元，实现了稳健发展。 运营商财经网食品快消部主任刘慧敏表示，百威亚太近年来加大非即饮渠道的拓展，重点发力百威与哈 尔滨啤酒这两大品牌，优化产品结构，通过产品创新来满足不同渠道的消费者需求。 近日，由运营商财经网独家编制的"2025年度啤酒企业五大杰出总裁"名单正式揭晓，百威亚太首席执行 官程衍俊成功入选！ （责任编辑：周颖） ...

Group 1 - Citi has revised Budweiser APAC's (01876) sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 down by 3%, 4%, and 4% respectively, reflecting a weaker outlook for the second half of 2025 in China [1] - Due to weakened operating leverage, the core net profit forecasts for Budweiser APAC for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 10%, 10%, and 9% respectively [1] - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been lowered from HKD 12.4 to HKD 11.4, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2 - The company anticipates that sales in the fourth quarter of last year will also be negatively impacted due to the later timing of the Lunar New Year in 2026 [1] - The preference order for the Chinese beer industry remains unchanged, with China Resources Beer (00291), Budweiser APAC, and Tsingtao Brewery (600600) (00168) ranked accordingly [1]

Group 1 - Citi has lowered Budweiser APAC's (01876) sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 3%, 4%, and 4% respectively, reflecting a weaker outlook for the Chinese business in the second half of 2025 [1] - Due to weakened operating leverage, core net profit forecasts for Budweiser APAC for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 10%, 10%, and 9% respectively [1] - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been adjusted from HKD 12.4 to HKD 11.4, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2 - The sales in the fourth quarter of last year are expected to be negatively impacted due to the later timing of the Lunar New Year in 2026 [1] - The preference order for the Chinese beer industry remains unchanged, with China Resources Beer (00291), Budweiser APAC, and Tsingtao Brewery (00168) ranked accordingly [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has lowered Budweiser APAC's sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 3%, 4%, and 4% respectively, reflecting a weaker-than-expected outlook for the second half of 2025 in China [1] - The sales in the fourth quarter of last year will also be negatively impacted due to the later timing of the Lunar New Year in 2026 [1] - Due to weakened operating leverage, Citigroup has reduced Budweiser APAC's core net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 10%, 10%, and 9% respectively [1] - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been adjusted from HKD 12.4 to HKD 11.4, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Citigroup's preference order for the domestic beer industry remains unchanged, ranking China Resources Beer, Budweiser APAC, and Tsingtao Brewery [1]