来源：运营商财经网 运营商财经网 周颖/文 近日，百威亚太发布2025年三季度财报，报告显示，公司第三季度营利双双下降，其中中国市场面临挑 战。 据百威亚太2025年三季度财报，公司营业收入为46.91亿美元，同比下降8.09%，净利润为5.94亿美元， 同比下降19.95%，销量为661.40万千升，同比减少7.10%。 其中第三季度公司收入为15.55亿美元，同比下降8.80%，净利润为1.85亿美元，同比减少7.96%，销量 同比下滑8.58%至225.12万千升。而对于销量的减少，百威亚太表示，主要因为公司在中国的业务布局 影响，但被印度的表现所部分抵消。 从中国市场的具体表现来看，2025年前三个季度，中国市场销量减少9.3%，收入减少11.3%，每百升收 入下降2.2%。其中第三季度中国市场销量减少11.4%，收入减少15.1%，每升收入减少4.1%，下降幅度 进一步拉大。百威亚太对此解释称，主要由于加大创新产品及品牌推广的投入，以及拓展非即饮市场的 相关投入，加上在存货管理过程中出现不利的品牌组合所致。 此外值得一提的是，在今年上半年，百威亚太营业收入同比下降7.74%至224.5亿元，被华润啤 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for several companies including China Feihe, Haidilao, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in vegetables and corrugated paper, with the spot cost index for vegetables rising by 7.08% month-on-month and 16.16% year-on-year, while corrugated paper prices increased by 8.81% month-on-month and 17.49% year-on-year [6][24][27]. - Most spot cost indices for monitored consumer goods have risen, while futures cost indices have generally declined, indicating a mixed outlook for the sector [31]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer decreased by 2.25% month-on-month, with a cumulative decline of 3.04% since the beginning of the year [12][32]. - The futures index also fell by 2.62% month-on-month, reflecting ongoing supply-demand imbalances [12][32]. Condiments - The spot cost index for condiments decreased by 0.95% month-on-month, with a cumulative decline of 3.50% since the start of the year [15][33]. - Soybean prices have shown an increase, with spot prices rising by 1.38% month-on-month [15][33]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 0.74% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.07% [18][34]. - Fresh milk prices have declined to 3.03 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [18][34]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 0.64% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.47% [21][35]. - Palm oil prices have decreased significantly, impacting production costs [21][35]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods increased by 0.37% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 0.52% [24][36]. - Vegetable prices have surged due to adverse weather conditions, contributing to rising costs [24][36]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks increased by 2.50% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.70% [27][37]. - The price of PET chips has declined, affecting overall production costs [27][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in the food and beverage industry, "safety," "transparency," and "responsibility" have become new cornerstones of brand value, moving beyond traditional competitive advantages like taste and convenience [2]. Group 1: ESG Performance Overview - Most food companies are currently at the industry average in mainstream ESG ratings, with few leading companies such as Mengniu, Yili, Chongqing Beer, Budweiser Asia Pacific, and Ausnutria rated AA or above by MSCI [2]. - The food industry is increasingly recognizing the importance of ESG as a strategic tool for enhancing competitiveness and achieving resilient development due to regulatory pressures and consumer awareness [5]. Group 2: Environmental Dimension - Key areas of focus for environmental performance include climate change response, greenhouse gas emissions management, packaging management, water resource management, and biodiversity protection [7]. - Leading companies like Mengniu and Yili have demonstrated advanced performance in environmental disclosures, producing specialized reports on climate-related risks and sustainability [8][10]. - The complexity of the food industry's value chain presents challenges in accurately calculating greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in agricultural activities [11]. Group 3: Social Dimension - The critical performance metrics for social responsibility include product quality and safety, nutrition and health improvement, supply chain management, responsible marketing, and customer service [14]. - Food safety remains a fundamental issue for survival, with a reported overall non-compliance rate of 2.61% in food safety inspections, indicating an improving trend [16]. - Companies are increasingly adopting digital management tools for traceability and enhancing food safety management systems [16]. Group 4: Governance Dimension - Key governance performance metrics include the establishment of independent ESG committees, integration of ESG risk management into overall risk management processes, and the independence and diversity of the board [20][21]. - Companies like Mengniu have established dedicated sustainability committees within their boards, demonstrating effective oversight of ESG issues [23]. - There is a growing trend to link executive compensation to ESG performance, although this practice is still relatively rare [23]. Group 5: Industry Trends and Challenges - The food and beverage industry is moving from a basic understanding of ESG to a more nuanced and systematic approach, with leading companies building barriers through comprehensive ESG strategies [25]. - Despite advancements, many companies still face challenges in collecting and reporting Scope 3 emissions data, which is critical for comprehensive ESG assessments [13].

Core Insights - The beer industry is experiencing a slowdown in overall growth, with companies facing challenges in increasing profits while revenues remain stagnant [2][8] - The recent "Double 11" shopping festival saw significant online sales for major beer brands, but the competitive landscape is shifting towards high-end products and diverse consumption scenarios [2][6] Group 1: Market Trends - Major beer brands like Tsingtao, Budweiser, and Yanjing dominated online sales during "Double 11," with Tsingtao's exclusive 211ml small white beer seeing a nearly 4-fold increase in sales [2] - The beer market is transitioning from a speed competition to a focus on high-end products and diverse consumption scenarios, indicating a need for innovation and adaptation [2][8] Group 2: Product Innovation - Companies are focusing on product innovation to meet changing consumer demands, with new categories like non-alcoholic and low-calorie beers gaining traction [3][9] - Carlsberg China emphasizes the importance of high-end products and fine management, while Budweiser Asia Pacific highlights the need for technological advancements in brewing processes [4][5] Group 3: Consumption Scenarios - The traditional consumption scenarios for beer are weakening, prompting companies to explore new experiences such as outdoor activities and urban street culture [6][7] - Tsingtao Beer is creating experiential venues like museums and beer gardens to enhance consumer engagement, while Carlsberg is aligning its brands with specific dining experiences [6][7] Group 4: Industry Outlook - Despite the current challenges, the long-term growth potential of the Chinese beer market remains strong, with a focus on quality and innovation [8][9] - Industry leaders stress the importance of collaboration and shared efforts to drive innovation and quality improvements across the sector [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Budweiser APAC in the Chinese beer market, highlighting the need for strategic reforms under the new CEO, Cheng Yanjun, to address declining sales and market share [1][18]. Group 1: Performance Overview - Budweiser APAC has experienced a continuous decline in beer sales for eight consecutive quarters, with a 3.1% drop in the Chinese market during Q4 2023 [3][4]. - In 2024, the company reported an 8.8% decline in beer sales and a 7% decline in revenue, with the Chinese market seeing an 11.8% drop in sales and a 13% drop in revenue [3][4]. - For the first nine months of 2025, Budweiser APAC's beer sales were 6.614 billion liters, down 7% year-on-year, and revenue was $4.691 billion, down 6.6% [4][5]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The company faces significant challenges in the Chinese market due to a shift in consumer preferences towards non-drinking channels, which now account for over 60% of beer sales, surpassing traditional drinking channels [11][12]. - Budweiser APAC's market share in China decreased by 149 basis points in 2024, and it lost its position as the revenue leader in the Chinese beer industry to China Resources Beer [12][13]. - The company has struggled to adapt to the fast-growing 8-10 yuan price segment, where local brands have gained a strong foothold [12][13]. Group 3: Strategic Changes - Cheng Yanjun, the new CEO, has initiated a comprehensive reform strategy focusing on regaining market share and enhancing the company's presence in non-drinking channels [15][18]. - The company aims to leverage its Budweiser and Harbin brands, with Budweiser maintaining a premium positioning and Harbin targeting the core price segment [15][18]. - Despite some initial improvements in Q2 2025, the company reported a further decline in revenue and sales in Q3 2025, indicating the complexity of the market environment [16][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The effectiveness of the new strategies implemented by Cheng Yanjun will be critical in determining Budweiser APAC's performance in 2026, as the company navigates the challenges of adapting to local market dynamics [18][19].

Core Insights - Budweiser China is expanding its strategic focus in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, emphasizing the development of the night economy as a key growth driver [1][4][6] - The company views beer as a pivotal element in enhancing nighttime social interactions and stimulating consumer spending, moving beyond traditional fast-moving consumer goods [3][10] Strategic Initiatives - Budweiser China plans to increase commercial investments in Guangdong, marking a new phase of integration and development in the Greater Bay Area after over 40 years of presence [4][6] - The company aims to implement a "Beer+" strategy by 2026, incorporating international sports and music events to boost the night economy, including sponsorship of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [6][8] Market Insights - The Greater Bay Area, with nearly 90 million residents and accounting for 10% of China's economic output, is identified as a prime location for Budweiser's growth initiatives [4][7] - Research indicates that nighttime consumption in Chinese cities, particularly in the Greater Bay Area, constitutes 50% to 60% of total city consumption, highlighting the area's potential for economic growth [10][12] Consumer Trends - The night economy in China has expanded significantly, with its market size growing from 22.54 trillion yuan in 2018 to 50.25 trillion yuan in 2023, indicating robust consumer demand [8][10] - Beer consumption is evolving, becoming more diversified and high-end, serving as a social catalyst in various settings, from bars to music festivals [12][16] Brand Strategy - Budweiser is shifting its narrative from traditional marketing to a more immersive approach, focusing on emotional connections and consumer experiences [14][15] - The "Flagship Brand × Super Platform" strategy aims to create a resonant brand ecosystem by integrating Budweiser's core brands with major cultural and sporting events [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser China is expanding its strategic focus in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, emphasizing the integration of beer with the night economy to stimulate consumption and social engagement [1][5][9]. Group 1: Strategic Expansion - Budweiser China plans to increase its commercial investment in Guangdong, marking a new phase of development in the Greater Bay Area after over 40 years of presence [5][6]. - The company aims to leverage its historical ties to the region, where it began its journey in China, to foster a new wave of integrated growth [5][6]. Group 2: Night Economy Focus - Budweiser China is preparing a "Beer +" strategy to enhance the night economy by introducing international sports and music events, including the FIFA World Cup in 2026 [8][9]. - The company recognizes that most consumer spending in Chinese cities occurs after 6 PM, particularly in the Greater Bay Area, which is seen as a natural environment for developing the night economy [9][11]. Group 3: Evolving Consumption Patterns - The night economy in China has grown significantly, with its market size increasing from 22.54 trillion yuan in 2018 to 50.25 trillion yuan in 2023, indicating robust consumer potential [11]. - Budweiser China is adapting to changing consumer preferences, where beer is increasingly viewed as a social catalyst rather than just a beverage associated with food [12][15]. Group 4: New Narrative and Brand Strategy - Budweiser China is shifting from traditional marketing narratives to a "fireworks narrative" that emphasizes emotional connections and social experiences [18][20]. - The "Flagship Brand × Super Platform" strategy aims to create a multi-dimensional brand ecosystem that resonates with consumers through immersive experiences and high-frequency interactions [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that Budweiser APAC (01876) is facing challenges in its China business for Q3 2025, with management maintaining a cautious outlook for Q4 sales despite lower channel inventory levels compared to industry averages [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC's revenue in China for Q3 decreased by 15.1% year-on-year, primarily due to a 11.4% drop in sales volume and a 4.1% decline in average selling price [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to weak dining channel sales, a deteriorating product mix, and discounts offered to certain distributors to enhance penetration in Chinese household channels [1] Group 2: Management Outlook - Management expects that inventory levels will not be quickly replenished, despite being lower than the industry average [1] - The cautious stance for Q4 sales performance reflects ongoing challenges in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite challenges in the third quarter of 2025 for Budweiser APAC's (01876) China operations, the management remains cautiously optimistic about sales performance in the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC's revenue in China declined by 15.1% year-on-year in the third quarter, primarily due to a 11.4% drop in sales volume and a 4.1% decrease in average selling price [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to weak restaurant channels, a deteriorating product mix, and discounts offered to certain distributors to accelerate penetration into Chinese household channels [1] Group 2: Inventory and Sales Outlook - The management believes that channel inventory levels are even below the industry average, but they do not expect a rapid replenishment of inventory [1] - The management's cautious stance on fourth-quarter sales performance reflects ongoing challenges in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report predicts that China Resources Beer (00291) will achieve low single-digit sales growth and double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth by Q3 2025, outperforming Qingdao Beer (600600) and Budweiser APAC (01876) [1] Company Summary - The beer industry is currently experiencing a polarization trend, characterized by both premiumization and downgrading [1] - Despite ongoing pressure in the liquor business, there has been improvement compared to the summer, which may lead to goodwill impairment, but this will not affect dividends [1] - The dividend payout ratio for China Resources Beer is expected to increase from 52% in 2024 to 60% in 2025, and further rise to 70-80% by 2027-2028 [1] - Following changes in the management team, the company's business remains resilient and its development pace is steady [1] - The management has reiterated its targets for 2025, expecting adjusted profit (excluding special income related to the relocation agreement with joint ventures in the first half of 2025) to grow by low single-digit to double-digit year-on-year, with sales growth projected at low single-digit [1]