LPR继续持稳，二季度降息何时落地？

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, indicating a stable monetary policy environment despite previous expectations for a rate cut [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The LPR has remained stable for six consecutive months following a 25 basis point reduction in October 2024, reflecting a strong economic performance in the first quarter [1][4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has kept the 7-day reverse repurchase rate unchanged, which serves as the pricing basis for the LPR, contributing to the stability of the LPR [4]. - Financial indicators show reasonable growth, with social financing increasing by 8.4% year-on-year and RMB loans rising by 7.4%, indicating robust support for the real economy [4]. Group 2: External Influences and Future Expectations - External factors, such as the absence of the U.S. FOMC meeting in April and ongoing tariff impacts, may increase exchange rate pressures, leading to a cautious approach towards total rate cuts [5]. - Analysts expect a potential rate cut in the second quarter, with a possibility of a 30 basis point reduction, as conditions for monetary easing appear to be maturing [5][6]. - The focus on stabilizing the exchange rate may not significantly hinder monetary policy, allowing for potential adjustments in response to economic conditions [5][6].