美国经济对“特朗普冲击”免疫了？

Core Insights - The U.S. economy appears to exhibit a surprising level of resilience despite the significant policy changes under the Trump administration, with key economic indicators such as employment and inflation not showing the expected severe impacts [1][2] - The long-term effects of Trump's policies, particularly tariffs, may not yet be fully reflected in economic data, suggesting that the current economic stability could be a temporary illusion [1][3] Economic Data Analysis - Employment growth has remained steady at approximately 173,000 jobs per month over the past two months, which is consistent with the previous six months, while the unemployment rate has only increased by 0.1 percentage points [2] - Federal spending has increased by $154 billion compared to the same period last year, contrary to Trump's initial claims of saving $2 trillion in federal expenditures [2] - The government aimed to reduce its workforce by 10% (around 240,000 employees), but only managed to cut about 10,000 positions by March [2] Tariff Impact - The effects of Trump's tariffs are expected to be delayed, as most tariffs take several months to impact consumer prices, with steel and aluminum tariffs implemented in mid-March not yet fully reflected in pricing [3][4] - The presence of inventory buffers and preemptive stockpiling by businesses has further postponed the visible effects of tariffs on the market [3] Market Reactions - The large scale of the U.S. economy has diluted the immediate impacts of Trump's policies, leading to fluctuations in the stock market, particularly in technology stocks, as investor sentiment adjusts to policy changes [4] - The complexity of the feedback mechanisms resulting from Trump's policies, such as unexpected declines in consumer prices and oil prices, indicates a multifaceted response from the market [4] - Ongoing trade negotiations and policy fluctuations are likely to lead to more significant market volatility, necessitating careful management of market expectations by businesses [4]