最近美元资产抛售的核心逻辑：特朗普施压鲍威尔

Core Viewpoint - The independence crisis of the Federal Reserve has triggered a significant sell-off of dollar assets, fueled by President Trump's threats to dismiss Chairman Jerome Powell, leading traders to reassess the potential for Powell's removal [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following comments from White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett regarding Trump's consideration of firing Powell, the dollar index fell to a three-year low [2]. - Multiple hedge funds began selling off dollar assets after Hassett's remarks, indicating a growing concern among investors [2]. - The potential for Powell's dismissal has heightened expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, resulting in an increased yield spread between long-term and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds [5]. Group 2: Legal and Political Context - Legal scholars suggest that Trump cannot easily dismiss Powell, as the Federal Reserve Act stipulates that members can only be removed for "just cause," typically interpreted as serious misconduct [8]. - The recent Supreme Court ruling in "Trump v. Wilcox" may alter the dynamics of presidential power over independent agencies, potentially expanding the president's authority to dismiss officials previously thought insulated from political influence [9]. Group 3: Implications for Financial Markets - Warnings from U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicate that any attempt to remove Powell could lead to severe market turmoil [10]. - Even critics of Powell, such as Senator Elizabeth Warren, have expressed support for the Fed's independence, highlighting the potential for market collapse if the president can dismiss the Fed chair [11]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs warn that if the Fed succumbs to political pressure and significantly lowers rates without regard for inflation risks, it could lead to a depreciation of the dollar and a surge in gold prices [13].