三诺生物(300298)：2024Q4血糖业务增长亮眼 CGM海外稳步推进

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.443 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 326 million yuan, up 15% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and turned a profit with a net profit of 71 million yuan [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - For the full year 2024, the blood glucose monitoring business generated approximately 3.321 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 15.58% year-on-year, with the first half contributing 1.552 billion yuan and the second half approximately 1.769 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% growth [2] - The Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) business is expected to exceed 200 million yuan in revenue for 2024, maintaining high growth compared to 2023 [2] - The traditional Blood Glucose Monitoring (BGM) business is projected to grow over 10% year-on-year [2] Market Expansion and Product Development - The CGM product "Sanofi Aikang" has received regulatory approval in 25 countries and regions, including China, Indonesia, and the EU, enhancing its market competitiveness [3] - The company has signed a distribution agreement with A.MENARINI DIAGNOSTICS S.r.l. for exclusive distribution of CGM products in over 20 countries in Europe, indicating potential for market expansion [3] - The CGM products have completed clinical registration in the U.S. and are undergoing the FDA's 510(k) substantive review process [3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 4.933 billion yuan, 5.582 billion yuan, and 6.209 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.0%, 13.1%, and 11.2% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 456 million yuan, 573 million yuan, and 712 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 39.8%, 25.6%, and 24.2% respectively [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its strong position in the blood glucose monitoring sector and successful domestic and international expansion of CGM products [4]