四大因素掣肘，鲍威尔不得不“保持耐心”？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's patience in the face of economic uncertainty in the U.S. may be the correct approach, as recent comments from Chairman Powell indicate a cautious stance due to inflation and economic challenges posed by tariffs [1] Group 1: Economic Uncertainty - High inflation and declining economic growth potential are significant concerns, with the Fed facing a dilemma due to Trump's tariff policies [1][2] - The expectation is that the Fed may not lower interest rates significantly this year, with a potential trigger for action being a rise in unemployment above 4.5% [2] Group 2: Economic Growth Potential - The U.S. economy is experiencing a structural decline in growth potential, exacerbated by rising import prices and a decrease in labor supply due to higher deportation rates [4] - Despite a projected slowdown in GDP growth, the unemployment rate remains relatively stable at 4.2%, indicating that economic weakness may not lead to sufficient labor market softness to warrant monetary policy support [4] Group 3: Inflation Concerns - The market is beginning to accept that inflation may exceed the Fed's 2% target for a fifth consecutive year, posing a threat to the Fed's credibility [5] - Short-term inflation expectations have risen significantly, although this is not corroborated by other inflation indicators [5] Group 4: Political Pressures - Trump's attacks on the Fed's independence may influence its decision-making, as the Fed aims to maintain its credibility and avoid perceptions of political pressure [6]