现货黄金狂飙至3400美元！历史纪录震撼全球市场

Core Viewpoint - The spot gold price reached an unprecedented high of $3,400 per ounce on April 21, 2025, marking a historic milestone and sparking widespread discussion among investors regarding future gold price trends [1][3]. Price Movement and Technical Analysis - Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have shown a steady upward trend, with a 2.2% increase leading to the record price of $3,400 per ounce as of April 21 [3]. - The relative strength index (RSI) indicates that gold is currently in an overbought state, and low trading volume may exaggerate price movements, yet buyers remain strong [3]. - A daily close above $3,400 per ounce is necessary for buyers to target the psychological level of $3,450 per ounce [3]. Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The escalation of trade wars has heightened tensions among global economies, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - The U.S. dollar's credit crisis, with a fiscal deficit rate exceeding 6.6% and the dollar index dropping to 98.5, has diminished the dollar's attractiveness [4]. - Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have increased gold reserves, indicating sustained interest in gold [4]. - Uncertainty in Federal Reserve monetary policy has also contributed to the upward pressure on gold prices [4]. Future Outlook - Experts and institutions maintain an optimistic view on the medium to long-term trajectory of gold prices, with UBS raising its year-end price forecast to $3,500 per ounce and suggesting a potential extreme scenario of $4,000 per ounce [5]. - However, there are warnings about the risks of crowded long positions in the short term, particularly in domestic markets, as overseas events may continue to disrupt the market [5]. - It is advised that investors diversify their asset portfolios while rationally assessing their risk tolerance and liquidity, avoiding excessive speculative asset allocation [5].