Block vs. Affirm: Which Fintech Stock Should You Consider Now?

Core Insights - The fintech sector is experiencing significant growth, with the global market expected to reach $1.13 trillion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 16.2% from 2025 to 2032 [2] - Block (XYZ) and Affirm (AFRM) are key players in this sector, each leveraging unique strengths to capitalize on market opportunities [1][2] Company Analysis: Block (XYZ) - Block is seeing strong engagement with its Cash App, which had 2.5 million paycheck deposit actives in December, marking a 25% year-over-year increase [3] - Cash App Borrow has reached 5 million monthly active users, contributing to the ecosystem's growth [4] - The BNPL platform of Block grew 19% year-over-year, achieving $10.3 billion in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) in Q4 2024 [5] - Investments in AI and open-source innovation are expected to enhance long-term growth and operational efficiency [6] Company Analysis: Affirm (AFRM) - Affirm is benefiting from strong consumer demand for flexible payment options, with over 337,000 active merchant partners as of December 31, 2024 [7] - The company reported a 34.7% year-over-year increase in GMV, reaching $10.1 billion in Q2 of fiscal 2025 [8] - Strategic partnerships, including collaborations with Shopify and Revolve Group, are facilitating international expansion [9][10] Price Performance and Valuation - In the trailing twelve months, AFRM shares increased by 31.7%, while XYZ shares decreased by 24.8% [11] - Valuation metrics indicate that both stocks are currently overvalued, with AFRM trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 3.53X compared to XYZ's 1.24X [13] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XYZ's 2025 earnings is $4.12 per share, reflecting a 22.26% year-over-year increase [16] - AFRM's consensus estimate indicates a loss of 6 cents per share for fiscal 2025, but this represents a 96.41% year-over-year improvement [16] - AFRM has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 84.09%, compared to XYZ's 11.25% [17] Conclusion - Affirm's strong fundamentals, positive earnings outlook, and expanding international presence make it a more attractive investment compared to Block, which faces macroeconomic challenges and stiff competition [17][18]