NVR Gears Up to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - NVR, Inc. is expected to report lower earnings in Q1 2025 despite an increase in homebuilding revenues year-over-year, driven by adjustments to high mortgage rates and a strong business model [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, NVR's earnings and homebuilding revenues exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.7% and 3.3%, respectively, with year-over-year increases of 15% in earnings and 16% in homebuilding revenues [1]. - The consensus estimate for Q1 2025's EPS has decreased to $107.87 from $108.23, indicating a 7.3% decline from the year-ago EPS of $116.41 [2]. - Revenue for the upcoming quarter is projected at $2.37 billion, reflecting a 3.9% increase from the previous year's $2.29 billion [3]. Revenue and Orders - Homebuilding revenues, which accounted for 97.8% of total revenues in 2024, are expected to grow 4.8% year-over-year to $2.4 billion in Q1 2025 [5]. - The average selling price of settlements is anticipated to improve by 1.2% year-over-year to $454,400, with total settlements expected to rise 3.6% to 5,271 units [5]. - Total new orders are projected to increase by 8.7% year-over-year to 6,577 units, with a backlog of 11,259 units valued at $5.42 billion, up from $5.22 billion a year ago [7]. Cost and Margin Outlook - The company's bottom line is expected to decrease year-over-year due to rising building materials and labor costs, with homebuilding gross margin projected at 22%, down 250 basis points from the previous year [6]. Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model does not predict an earnings beat for NVR in the upcoming quarter, as the company lacks a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank [8]. - NVR's Earnings ESP stands at -1.62%, and it currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [9].