Apple Shares Dip 21% Year to Date: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Group 1: Stock Performance - Apple (AAPL) shares have declined 21.3% year to date (YTD), underperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector's decline of 17.1% [1] - Following the April 2 Liberation Day announcement, Apple shares fell 11.2% until the 90-day pause was announced, after which they recovered 3.4% [1] Group 2: Market and Supply Chain Impact - China is a crucial market for Apple, with manufacturing primarily concentrated there, and higher tariffs negatively impact Apple's supply chain [2] - The Trump administration's decision to exempt electronic devices from reciprocal tariffs provided some relief to Apple [2] Group 3: Sales and Competition - Apple has faced sluggish demand for the iPhone in China, with Greater China sales decreasing 11.1% year over year in the first quarter of fiscal 2025 due to increased competition from Huawei and Xiaomi [3] - iPhone sales decreased 0.8% year over year to $69.14 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, although better sales were noted in regions where Apple Intelligence was available [10] Group 4: Services Growth - Apple's Services portfolio has emerged as a strong growth driver, with revenues growing 14% year over year in the fiscal first quarter [6] - Apple now has over 1 billion paid subscribers across its Services portfolio, more than double the number from four years ago [7] Group 5: Apple TV+ Performance - Apple TV+ has been struggling with a lack of content compared to competitors like Netflix, Amazon, and Disney, leading to profitability issues with losses exceeding $1 billion [8] - Apple TV+'s market share in the U.S. increased from 7% in Q4 2024 to 8% in Q1 2025, but it still trails behind Amazon Prime Video and Netflix [9] Group 6: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Apple's fiscal 2025 earnings has declined 1.1% to $7.18 per share, indicating 6.37% growth from fiscal 2024 [12] - AAPL stock is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 27.85X, compared to the sector's 23.92X, suggesting a stretched valuation [13] Group 7: Technical Indicators - AAPL shares are currently trading below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend [16] Group 8: Conclusion - Despite the growth in the Services business, the underwhelming performance of Apple Intelligence is seen as a headwind for the product business, leading to a belief that near-term growth prospects do not justify a premium valuation [19]