Should Investors Buy the Spike in Netflix Stock After Q1 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Netflix has demonstrated strong Q1 earnings, surpassing expectations and showing significant year-over-year growth, which has positively impacted its stock performance amid broader market challenges [1][2][3]. Group 1: Q1 Results - Netflix's Q1 earnings reached $2.89 billion or $6.61 per share, exceeding EPS expectations of $5.69 by 16% and increasing 25% from $5.28 per share a year ago [2]. - Q1 sales rose over 12% to $10.54 billion, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus by 0.04% [2]. - The favorable results were attributed to successful subscription plans and advertising revenue, with Netflix shifting focus from subscriber data to revenue growth [3]. Group 2: Future Guidance - For Q2, Netflix expects sales of $11 billion, above Zacks estimates of $10.96 billion, indicating a 14% growth [4]. - Q2 EPS is projected at $7.03, surpassing the current Zacks Consensus of $6.22 per share, reflecting a 27% growth [4]. - Full-year revenue is projected between $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion, aligning with Zacks projections of $44.4 billion, indicating a 14% growth [5]. Group 3: Market Performance - Year-to-date, Netflix stock is up 11%, outperforming the S&P 500's 10% decline and the Nasdaq's 18% drop [9]. - Over the last two years, Netflix shares have increased by 200%, significantly outperforming the broader index's returns of approximately 30% [9]. Group 4: Valuation Metrics - Netflix shares are trading around $1000, with a forward earnings multiple of 39.7X, which is a premium compared to the benchmark's 20.3X and Disney's 15.5X [11]. - This valuation is a discount to Netflix's five-year high of 88.5X forward earnings and is closer to the median of 37.3X during this period [11]. Group 5: Analyst Sentiment - Currently, Netflix holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), but there is potential for a buy rating due to favorable Q1 results and guidance [13]. - Earnings estimate revisions may increase in the coming weeks, indicating potential short-term upside and helping to level Netflix's P/E valuation [13].