作者 Long Player ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。 尽管收益实现了不错的增长，但 Netflix（NFLX）的却在下跌。 即便是现金流有所增长。但这表明该公司此前估值过高，目前正回归现实， 而非公司业务出现了严重问题。事实上，收购华纳兄弟探索频道（WBD）的提议，纠正了该公司商业模式中一段时间以来日益明显的一些缺 陷。 如今，收购华纳兄弟探索频道的提议似乎给了市场一次现实检验，而这是 市场几乎无法通过其他方式面对的。结果就是， Netflix 目前正朝着 更现实的估值区间迈进。 | NFLX - Netflix, Inc. | NFLX Summary | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $87.26 -0.74 (-0.84%) 4 00 PM 01/20/26 | | | | | | | | | | | | NASDAQ SUSD Post-Market $83.09 -4.17 (-4.78%) ...

Listen to this post:Good morning,This week’s Stratechery Interview is with Netflix co-CEO Greg Peters. Peters became co-CEO of Netflix in 2023, and was previously Chief Operating Officer and Chief Product Officer. I interviewed Peters in January 2024.Netflix reached all-time highs last summer, but is facing increased skepticism from Wall Street, particularly after the company announced its intention to acquire Warner Bros., which represented a stark departure from the company’s build-not-buy philosophy.In t ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding that past performance does not guarantee future results, highlighting the need for careful analysis before making investment decisions [2][3]. Group 1 - The article states that the information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but it does not guarantee accuracy and should not be regarded as a complete analysis [2][3]. - It clarifies that no specific investment recommendations or advice are being provided, and any views expressed may not reflect the opinions of the platform as a whole [3]. - The article notes that the authors are third-party contributors, which may include both professional and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified [3].

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. This post is illustrative and educational ...

高盛发表研报指，奈飞2025年第四季财报稳健，主要得益高于指引的总营收、营业收入及强劲的自由现 金流。该行预计管理层将持续专注于打造强大的电视/电影及回归/原创IP内容阵容；继续提升营运利润 率，同时保持对各项增长计划的投资；继续扩大广告支持方案(关键技术投资和合作伙伴关系可望使该 业务在2026年及以后实现超越行业平均的增长。 在公司财报发布之前，奈飞亦宣布对其先前公布的收购华纳兄弟串流媒体与工作室资产之协议进行修 订，现调整为全现金收购要约。高盛更新了对此交易的预估合并分析，合并后的实体预计将在2028年产 生约278亿至293亿美元的调整后息税折旧摊销前利润，在2029年约为320亿至348亿美元。高盛将奈飞目 标价从112美元降至100美元，维持"中性"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Netflix is currently facing significant challenges, including a sharp decline in stock price and intense competition, while navigating a complex acquisition of Warner Bros. [2][8] Financial Performance - Netflix's earnings per share for Q3 was $5.87, missing analysts' expectations by $1.10 or 15.8% [3] - Revenue increased by 17.2% year-over-year to $11.5 billion, but operating margin fell from 34.1% to 28.2% due to a $619 million expense related to a tax dispute in Brazil [4] - The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.5, below its five-year average of 44.7, but higher than the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 31.3 [5] Competitive Landscape - Netflix's market position is under pressure, ranking third in TV watch time with 8.8%, while YouTube leads with 13.4% [2] - The competition for viewers remains intense, with YouTube maintaining its lead for six consecutive months [2] Acquisition of Warner Bros. - Netflix announced an agreement to acquire Warner Bros. for $82.7 billion, which includes its film and TV studios, catalog, and HBO Max streaming service [8][9] - Investor skepticism surrounds the deal due to its high cost and potential debt implications, with Netflix's stock falling 12% since the announcement [9] - Historical context suggests that corporate mergers, particularly in media, often fail to deliver expected results, raising concerns about the Warner Bros. acquisition [10][11] Future Outlook - Netflix expects the Warner Bros. transaction to close within 12 to 18 months and has adjusted its bid to an all-cash offer of $27.75 per share [13] - Investor caution persists regarding the acquisition's impact on Netflix's finances and the integration of two culturally different media entities [13]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通(JPM.US)与艾伦公司，在这场奈飞(NFLX.US)和派拉蒙(PSKY.US)竞购华 纳兄弟探索公司(WBD.US)的交易中，俨然成为了明显的受益方。根据周二披露的证券备案文件，摩根 大通和艾伦公司作为华纳兄弟的顾问，将各自从这笔交易中斩获 9000 万美元的报酬。 两位知情人士透露，摩根大通还因在为华纳兄弟提供175亿美元过桥贷款中所起的作用而额外赚取了大 量资金。这笔贷款使华纳兄弟探索公司得以将其有线新闻网络和体育节目(包括CNN)从电影和电视部门 分离。知情人士要求匿名讨论内部事务。 摩根大通拒绝置评，艾伦公司未回应置评请求。 本周，奈飞对华纳兄弟工作室和流媒体业务提出了830亿美元的修订报价，使得这场竞购战进一步升 级。 所有目光现聚焦于派拉蒙，其对华纳兄弟探索公司的1080亿美元全面收购要约将于周三到期。外界普遍 预计派拉蒙至少会延长现有报价，投资者则希望其能提出更高的报价。与此同时，华纳兄弟正在花费数 亿美元的费用来拆分其两大业务线并出售公司。 过桥贷款费用 华纳兄弟方面透露，在出售交易达成之前，摩根大通就已凭借融资及其他相关服务赚取了 1.89 亿美元 的费用。据 ...

Asian shares have mostly advanced, tracking Wall Street, after US President Donald Trump walked back from imposing tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland and ruled out using military force to take control of the territory.The future for the S&P 500 gained less than 0.1 per cent and that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was virtually flat on Thursday.Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.7 per cent to 53,688.89, with technology stocks leading gains. SoftBank Group jumped 11.6 per cent and equipment ma ...

中经记者 张靖超 北京报道 北京时间1月21日（美东时间1月20日盘后），流媒体巨头网飞（NASDAQ：NFLX）发布了2025财年第 四财季（对应2025年第四季度）报告。数据显示，网飞当季营收120.5亿美元，同比增长17.61%，净利 润24.2亿美元，同比增长29.43%，调整后每股收益0.56美元；2025财年营收451.8亿美元，同比增长 15.85%，净利润109.8亿美元，同比增长26.05%，调整后每股收益2.53美元。 但营收与净利润双增的业绩并未让网飞市值与股价获得充足的增长动力。财报发布后的第一个交易日， 网飞股价下跌2.18%，报收85.36美元/股。 张毅认为："制片厂提供IP和制作能力，而以网飞为代表的流媒体平台在算法、数据和全球化的发行能 力方面都是有保障的。从行业的趋势来看，流媒体和传统影视的竞争已经日趋融合。" 网飞也在股东信中称，华纳兄弟与网飞是高度互补的业务，合并后将能为创作者提供更多机会，并增强 整个娱乐行业。通过收购，网飞将获得全球最强大的影视内容库之一，可用于开发新内容，并帮助公司 拓展消费品、体验和视频游戏等新兴业务。 收购华纳兄弟仍有变数 对于下跌原因，多位业 ...

证券研究报告 奈飞 (NFLX US) 4Q 收入符合预期，AI 制作渗透率提升 2026 年 1 月 21 日│美国 互联网 奈飞 4Q 营收同比增长 17%，超 VA 一致预期（下同）0.7%。4Q 毛利率同 比提升 0.7pct，主因付费会员增长至 3.25 亿，且广告收入放量持续，净利 润同比增长 29.4%，高于预期 2%，利息费用含收购华纳贷款相关的 6000 万美元。26 年指引方面，公司预期收入达 507-517 亿美元（符合预期 510 亿美元），经营利润率达 31.5%（低于预期 32.7%），包含 2.75 亿美元收 购相关费用。当前市场对其收购华纳后的协同效应仍存分歧，短期监管审批 观望情绪较重。我们认为后续应重点关注：①短期涨价空间，例如美国提价 窗口或临近，奈飞广告套餐价格仍低于同行；②从中期看，管理层预计 26 年广告收入有望实现翻倍，公司拓展功能并测试互动广告形式；③从远期看， AI 提效内容制作，同时内容供给不断丰富，例如新引入索尼院线合作（独 家播放 1.5 年），并拓展环球和派拉蒙的授权内容。维持"增持"评级。 用户参与度稳中有进，1Q 头部储备以回归剧集为主 奈飞用户参 ...