国瓷材料(300285)：蜂窝陶瓷国产替代有望加快 持续布局新产品

Core Viewpoint - The company's 2024 performance meets market expectations with revenue of 4.047 billion yuan and net profit of 605 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.86% and 6.27% respectively [1] Financial Performance - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2024 is 581 million yuan, up 7.05% year-on-year; net cash flow from operating activities is 754 million yuan, an increase of 16.85% [2] - Revenue from electronic materials grew by 4.2% to 624 million yuan, with sales volume increasing by 19.25% to 9,539 tons [2] - Revenue from catalytic materials rose by 10% to 787 million yuan, with sales volume increasing by 4.8% to 16.24 million liters [2] - Revenue from biomedical materials increased by 6.5% to 911 million yuan, although gross margin decreased by 3.67 percentage points to 56.67% due to adjustments in zirconia powder production lines [2] - Revenue from digital printing and other materials declined by 15.65% to 914 million yuan, but gross margin improved by 9.29 percentage points to 37.7% due to lower raw material prices [2] - Revenue from precision ceramics surged by 42% to 351 million yuan, while revenue from new energy materials increased by 48.3% to 404 million yuan [2] Industry Trends - The domestic substitution of honeycomb ceramics is expected to accelerate, as the global market is currently dominated by Corning and NGK, which together hold over 90% market share [3] - The company anticipates that the ongoing trade tariffs will increase costs for foreign honeycomb ceramic manufacturers, thereby accelerating the domestic substitution process [3] - The company is committed to innovation, with ongoing development of MLCC powder for automotive and AI applications, as well as new products such as chip capacitors and solid-state electrolytes, which are expected to support future growth [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 12% to 770 million yuan, with a new forecast for 2026 set at 944 million yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.4x for 2025 and 18.3x for 2026 [4] - The target price has been adjusted down by 7.6% to 24.5 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 42% with price-to-earnings ratios of 32x and 26x for 2025 and 2026 respectively [4]