南京银行(601009)：增速质量双优

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing Bank's performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations in terms of growth rate, revenue structure, and asset quality, with core revenue experiencing rapid growth and continued improvement in asset quality [1]. Financial Overview - In Q1 2025, Nanjing Bank's revenue grew by 6.5% year-on-year, while profit increased by 7.1%, with both growth rates declining by 4.8 percentage points and 2 percentage points compared to 2024 [2]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of Q1 2025 was 0.83%, remaining stable compared to the end of 2024, while the provision coverage ratio was 324%, down by 12 percentage points from the end of 2024 [2]. Core Revenue Growth - Nanjing Bank's revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025 were both above 5%, driven by significant improvements in net interest income and non-interest income [3][4]. - Net interest income increased by 17.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a 13 percentage point improvement compared to 2024, supported by growth in earning assets and stable interest margins [4]. - Non-interest income also saw a high growth of 18% year-on-year, primarily due to strong performance in wealth management and distribution services [4]. Interest Margin Improvement - The interest margin for Q1 2025 increased by 6 basis points from Q4 2024 to 1.41%, attributed to faster growth in earning assets compared to interest-bearing liabilities [5]. - Earning assets grew by 19.4% year-on-year, while interest-bearing liabilities increased by 16.4% [5]. Asset Quality Improvement - The static indicators showed that the NPL ratio remained at 0.83% at the end of Q1 2025, with a slight decrease in the attention ratio to 1.15% [6]. - The dynamic indicators indicated an improvement in the NPL generation rate, with a year-on-year decrease from 1.49% in 2023 to 1.46% in 2024 [6]. - The corporate NPL ratio increased, particularly in the real estate sector, while retail NPLs improved due to significant write-offs [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Nanjing Bank's net profit is projected to grow by 8.09%, 7.03%, and 6.80% from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding book values per share of 15.70, 17.12, and 18.63 yuan [7]. - The current price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.67, 0.61, and 0.56 for 2025-2027, with a target price of 14.26 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 37% [7].