HLGF(SH:600346) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-22 02:26Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, Hengli Petrochemical reported a decline in total revenue and net profit year-on-year, but showed improvement in profitability on a quarter-on-quarter basis, indicating operational resilience despite challenging market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was 57.024 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.54% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.051 billion yuan, down 4.13% year-on-year but up 5.78% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.239 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 31.88% but a substantial quarter-on-quarter increase of 112.75% [1]. - Basic earnings per share were 0.29 yuan, down 3.33% year-on-year and up 3.57% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Market Conditions - International oil prices experienced a two-phase trend in Q1 2025, initially declining due to various geopolitical factors and then rebounding due to increased sanctions on oil-producing countries [2]. - The average Brent crude oil price in Q1 2025 was $75 per barrel, down 8% year-on-year but up 1% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Prices for Hengli's refining products, PTA, and new materials fell by 2.5%, 16.6%, and 16.5% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting a seasonal demand slowdown and weakening macro demand recovery [2]. Operational Efficiency - The production and sales rates for refining products, PTA, and new materials were 91%, 98%, and 87%, respectively, showing improvements of 8, 13, and 7 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The net operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 7.746 billion yuan, demonstrating strong cash flow generation capabilities [2]. Industry Trends - The refining industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with a government plan to limit domestic crude oil processing capacity to 1 billion tons by the end of 2025, leading to the elimination of smaller, less efficient refineries [3]. - Hengli Petrochemical possesses 20 million tons of advanced refining capacity, benefiting from cost control and integrated operations [3]. Product Development - The company is expanding its high-end chemical product offerings, with several projects set to contribute significantly to its chemical segment's performance [4]. - Upcoming projects include 800,000 tons of functional polyester films and 3 billion square meters of lithium battery separators, indicating ongoing capacity expansion in high-end products [4]. Profit Forecast - Projected net profits for Hengli Petrochemical from 2025 to 2027 are 8.112 billion, 9.090 billion, and 10.287 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 12.0%, and 13.2%, respectively [4]. - The estimated diluted EPS for the same period is expected to be 1.15, 1.29, and 1.46 yuan per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.57, 12.11, and 10.70 times [4].