HLGF(SH:600346) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-22 02:26Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical reported a slight increase in total revenue and net profit for 2024, despite a challenging market environment characterized by declining oil prices and chemical product price indices [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 236.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.044 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.01% [1] - In Q4, the company recorded approximately 58.5 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 5.12% year-on-year and 10.29% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Q4 net profit was around 1.9 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 61.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 78.39% [1] - The company proposed a dividend of 0.45 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 45% [1] Industry Insights - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a decrease in the price index of chemical products, yet the company managed to maintain year-on-year growth due to cost advantages and tax refunds [1] - The refining sector experienced a notable decline in gross profit year-on-year, influenced by weak demand for refined oil and significant drops in the profitability of pure benzene and PX aromatics [1] Market Trends - Since 2025, the price spread between refined oil and crude oil has slightly improved, with the ethylene-naphtha spread increasing by over 6% and the PX-naphtha spread rising by more than 50% [2] - The cost of Brent crude oil has decreased by approximately 10%, along with declines in the prices of various coal types [2] - The ongoing restructuring of the refined oil market has led to a decrease in the operating rates of independent refineries, which may improve the outlook for long-process private refineries [2] Capital Expenditure and Future Prospects - The company has completed the commissioning of several high-performance resin and new materials projects, indicating a peak in capital expenditure [2] - Future dividend potential is expected to be strong as the company transitions from high capital spending to a focus on returns to shareholders [2][3] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 8.066 billion yuan, 9.699 billion yuan, and 12.413 billion yuan, respectively [3] Investment Recommendation - The company is currently under initial coverage with a "recommended" rating, reflecting positive expectations for its financial performance and dividend potential [4]