美元指数跌至三年新低，美元根基遭动摇短期或将延续疲弱走势

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing significant depreciation, reaching its lowest level since early April 2022, primarily due to the impact of the US government's tariff policies and the resulting economic uncertainties [1][2]. Economic Impact - The US dollar index has dropped over 5.5% in April and nearly 10% year-to-date, indicating a strong downward trend [2]. - Tariff policies are projected to impact US GDP by approximately 3 percentage points, contributing to economic instability [5]. - The US economy is entering a "stagflation trap," with rising inflation expectations and declining consumer confidence due to tariff-induced uncertainties [4]. Market Reactions - Recent financial market trends show a "sell everything" mentality, with a liquidity shock indicating a growing concern over the dollar's status as a safe asset [7]. - There is a notable shift of funds from US assets to safer alternatives like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold, accelerating the process of "de-dollarization" [8][9]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is being undermined, with increasing pressure from the government to lower interest rates, which could further weaken the dollar [10][12]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that the economic impacts of tariff increases may exceed expectations, complicating monetary policy decisions [11]. Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Despite a recent drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), tariffs are expected to be a key factor influencing future inflation trends, with concerns about persistent high inflation [6]. - Market sentiment is deteriorating, with households and businesses reporting increased uncertainty regarding economic prospects, largely attributed to trade policy concerns [12].