瑞银预计标普500指数将进一步走软 但到今年年底将实现反弹

Core Viewpoint - UBS expects the S&P 500 index to weaken further in the short term but rebound to 5,300 points by the end of 2025, potentially reaching 5,500 points if tariffs on Chinese imports are halved [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to decline further due to significant economic deterioration [1] - The S&P 500 index is projected to rebound to 5,300 points by the end of 2025, with a possibility of reaching 5,500 points if tariffs on Chinese imports are reduced by 50% [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The market has not yet reached its bottom, influenced by potential earnings downgrades, Federal Reserve responses, and valuations above trough levels [1] - It is expected that stock market valuations may hit a bottom in the third quarter, coinciding with peak credit spreads and the beginning of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] Group 3: Comparative Index Performance - By the end of 2025, the Stoxx 600 index is forecasted to outperform the S&P 500 index by approximately 5%, with a projected outperformance of 7% by the end of 2026 [1]