美股又崩了，特朗普真急了，美联储却不想背锅

Market Performance - The U.S. market experienced a significant downturn on April 21, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 971.82 points, a decline of 2.48%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped by 2.36% and 2.55% respectively [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.10% to close at 98.278, marking a 16-month low and the sixth time it has dropped below the 100 mark since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973 [2] - Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds faced a sell-off, leading to a steepening yield curve, with the ratio of U.S. government bonds to global counterparts hitting a 13-month low, indicating a rapid deterioration in U.S. Treasury performance [2] Institutional Investor Behavior - Institutional investors are strategically divesting from U.S. dollar assets due to the impact of "Trump tariffs," with significant sell-offs in U.S. stocks, dollars, and Treasuries [5] - PIMCO, a major bond management firm, has adopted a "low allocation to dollars" strategy, reducing exposure to U.S. Treasuries while increasing holdings in European, Japanese, and emerging market bonds [5] - Japanese insurance company Fukoku Mutual Life has announced plans to reduce foreign debt holdings and increase purchases of long-term Japanese government bonds, indicating a shift away from U.S. Treasuries [5] Federal Reserve Independence - There are concerns regarding the potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence as President Trump pressures for interest rate cuts amid market volatility [3][8] - Trump's attempts to challenge the Fed's independence and possibly remove Chairman Powell face significant legal hurdles, as historical precedents require "just cause" for such actions [8][9] - Even if Powell were to be removed, he would still hold voting rights as one of the seven members of the Fed's board, limiting the impact of any potential removal [9] Economic Implications of Rate Cuts - A potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while aimed at alleviating economic concerns stemming from tariffs, may not effectively restore confidence in U.S. dollar assets [11][12] - The U.S. Treasury's net interest expenditure for fiscal year 2024 is projected to be $882 billion, which constitutes 3.06% of GDP, exceeding military spending [11] - The ongoing tariff war is expected to increase core inflation rates in the U.S. by 2.5% to 3.5%, with new tariffs potentially raising annual household expenses by 10% to 15% [11][12]