LZJT(SZ:300428) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-22 10:42Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 27.25 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million yuan, up 16.8% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 610 million yuan, up 17.1% year-on-year, indicating that the performance in 2024 met expectations [1] Revenue Growth - The recovery of the automotive markets in China and the U.S. contributed to a quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in Q4 2024 [2] - Key factors for revenue growth in Q4 2024 include: 1) Rising aluminum prices, with the average price of A00 aluminum ingots increasing by 6.7% year-on-year in 2024 and by 8.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024 2) Improved automotive sales, with domestic passenger car sales in China increasing by 10.8% quarter-on-quarter and 31.9% year-on-year, and U.S. passenger car sales up by 7.3% quarter-on-quarter and 8.5% year-on-year [2] - Revenue breakdown by business for Q4 2024: - Casting aluminum alloy: 15.01 billion yuan, up 25.3% year-on-year - Wheels: 8.79 billion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year - Intermediate alloys: 2.1 billion yuan, up 12.6% year-on-year - Others: 1.17 billion yuan, up 29.0% year-on-year [2] Profitability Improvement - Multiple factors contributed to the quarter-on-quarter recovery of profitability in Q4 2024 [3] - Gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 9.6% and 2.6%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.9 and 0.0 percentage points; for Q4 2024, gross margin and net margin were 9.3% and 2.7%, respectively, down 1.3 and 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The casting aluminum alloy business benefited from higher-margin non-heat-treated alloys, scale effects, and an increased proportion of recycled aluminum, with profit per ton rising from approximately 160 yuan/ton to about 230 yuan/ton [3] - The wheel hub business faced profitability pressure due to overseas ramp-up and exchange rate fluctuations [3] - Looking ahead, the company expects further recovery in profitability driven by product structure optimization in the casting aluminum alloy business and improved capacity utilization in the wheel hub business [3] R&D and New Industry Layout - The company is accelerating research and development in aluminum alloy materials and expanding into emerging industries [3] - Key developments include: 1) Non-heat-treated alloys for the one-piece die-casting field in new energy vehicles, with strategic customer approvals obtained 2) Weldable die-casting aluminum alloys for automotive thermal management systems and expansion into energy storage and computing centers 3) Aluminum-based rare earth intermediate alloys and aerospace-grade special intermediate alloys used in aerospace and low-altitude economy 4) Silicon-aluminum dispersion composite materials for chip packaging and semiconductor equipment manufacturing [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to the short-term negative impact of U.S. tariffs on demand, the company has lowered its 2025 profit forecast by 9.0% to 860 million yuan, while maintaining the 2026 profit forecast at 1.11 billion yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12.0x for 2025 and 9.3x for 2026, maintaining an outperform rating [4] - The target price is set at 21 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15.5x for 2025 and 12.0x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 28.8% from the current stock price [4]