Here's How to Play Freeport-McMoRan Stock Before Q1 Earnings Release

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is expected to report a decline in earnings and revenues for the first quarter of 2025, influenced by higher unit costs but benefiting from increased copper prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX's first-quarter earnings is 24 cents per share, reflecting a 25% year-over-year decline [2]. - Revenue estimates stand at $5.31 billion, indicating a 16% decline year-over-year [2]. - FCX has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 15.2% [3]. Price and Cost Dynamics - Copper prices rebounded significantly in the first quarter, closing at around $5 per pound, a nearly 25% increase, with a record high of $5.24 per pound in late March 2025 [5][6]. - The average realized price for copper for FCX is estimated at $4.40 per pound, marking an 11.7% year-over-year rise [6][7]. - Higher unit net cash costs for copper are anticipated, with estimates for the first quarter being roughly 5% higher than previous guidance of $2.05 per pound [8]. Market Performance - FCX's shares have declined by 31.3% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry's decline of 29.8% and contrasting with the S&P 500's increase of 4.6% [9]. - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 18.35X, slightly above the peer group average of 18.15X [12]. Strategic Positioning - FCX is well-positioned with high-quality copper assets and is focused on advancing organic growth opportunities [15]. - The company has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, enabling it to finance growth projects and pay down debt [15]. - Despite facing headwinds from higher costs, FCX's financial health supports its dividend reliability and profitability [15][16]. Investment Outlook - FCX is expected to benefit from expansion activities that will enhance production capacity [17]. - However, declining earnings estimates and high production costs suggest a cautious approach for investors [17].