Vale to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Vale S.A. is anticipated to report a decline in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with sales expected at $8.16 billion, reflecting a 3.5% decrease year-over-year, and earnings per share projected at 37 cents, indicating a 5.1% decline from the previous year [1]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale's sales is $8.16 billion, down 3.5% from the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings has decreased by 14% over the past 60 days to 37 cents per share, representing a 5.1% year-over-year decline [1]. - Vale's earnings surprise history shows that the company missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 4.9% [2]. Production and Sales Update - Iron ore production for the first quarter was approximately 67.7 million tons (Mt), a decrease of 4.5% year-over-year, while pellet production fell 15.2% to 7.2 Mt [3]. - Iron ore fines sales increased by 8% year-over-year to 56.8 Mt, while total iron ore sales rose 3.6% to 66.1 Mt [4]. - Nickel sales reached 38.9 thousand tons (kt), up 17.5% from the previous year, but below the consensus estimate of 40.4 kt [5]. - Copper sales were recorded at 81.9 kt, a 6.6% increase year-over-year, but also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 kt [5]. Pricing Trends - The average realized price for iron ore fines was $90.8 per ton, down 9.8% year-over-year, and for iron ore pellets, it was $140.8 per ton, down 18.1% [4]. - The average realized nickel price was $16,106 per ton, a decrease of 4% from the previous year [5]. - The average realized price for copper operations was $8,891 per ton, up 15.7% year-over-year [6]. Cost Factors - The company has been facing increased input costs, particularly for diesel and freight, which have negatively impacted margins [7]. - Cost-control measures are expected to mitigate some of the adverse effects of rising input costs [7]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current Earnings ESP for Vale is 0.00%, indicating that the model does not predict an earnings beat for the upcoming report [8]. - Vale holds a Zacks Rank of 3, suggesting a neutral outlook [9]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, Vale's shares have declined by 25.3%, compared to a 24.8% decline in the industry [10].