Cambricon(688256) 华尔街见闻·2025-04-22 13:36Core Insights - The report highlights a significant transformation in the revenue structure of Cambrian, with a rapid rise in cloud chip business and a notable reduction in seasonal fluctuations [1][3] - Cambrian's Q1 revenue reached 1.111 billion yuan, marking a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase, contrasting with the typical 90% decline seen in previous years [3][4] - Goldman Sachs upgraded Cambrian's rating from "Neutral" to "Buy," raising the target price from 607.8 yuan to 1223 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 76% from the latest closing price [1] Revenue and Business Model - Cambrian's business focus has shifted from government projects to cloud chip business, with 99% of 2024 revenue expected to come from this segment, up from 20% in 2022 and 13% in 2023 [3][4] - The company is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 111% in revenue from 2025 to 2027 [4][7] Demand Indicators - Cambrian's inventory increased to 2.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, significantly higher than 990 million yuan in 2023 and 1.77 billion yuan in 2024, indicating strong market demand [6] - Contract liabilities rose to 1.4 million yuan in Q1 2025, up from 300,000 yuan in 2023, reflecting increased customer prepayment willingness [6] Research and Development Efficiency - The number of R&D engineers increased from a low of 727 in early 2024 to 741 by year-end, with revenue per engineer rising from 381,000 yuan in 2022 to 619,000 yuan in 2024, a 62% increase [6][7] - R&D investment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 52% from 2025 to 2030 [6] Profitability Outlook - Cambrian is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, with net profit forecasts for 2026 raised from 879 million yuan to 2.369 billion yuan [7] - EBITDA margin is projected to increase from 16% in 2025 to 26% by 2030, approaching levels seen in global peers like Nvidia and AMD [7]