资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 相关报告 -17% 7% 31% 55% 79% 103% 127% 151% 2025.04 2025.07 2025.11 2026.03 寒武纪 沪深300 分析师：邹臣 登记编码：S0730523100001 zouchen@ccnew.com 021-50581991 AI 芯片产品持续迭代，巩固多领域竞争优 势 ——寒武纪(688256)年报点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 买入(首次) 市场数据(2026-03-31) | 收盘价(元) | 983.00 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 1,595.88/520.67 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 4,450.05 | | 市净率(倍) | 35.02 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 4,145.17 | | 基础数据(2025-12-31) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 28.07 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | -1.18 | | 毛利率(%) | 55.15 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 17.40 | | 资产负债率(%) | 11.87 | | 总股本/流通股(万 ...

Core Insights - Chinese GPU and AI chip makers captured nearly 41% of China's AI accelerator server market in 2025, significantly reducing Nvidia's market dominance [2][5] - The shift is attributed to China's increasing caution about reliance on foreign chips, leading to a push for domestic alternatives amid U.S. export controls [3][5] Market Share Dynamics - Nvidia remains the market leader with approximately 2.2 million AI accelerator cards shipped, holding a 55% market share, but this represents a decline from its previous dominance [4][7] - Chinese vendors collectively shipped 1.65 million cards, marking a significant milestone in the market, with Huawei leading at around 812,000 cards, followed by Alibaba's T-Head with approximately 265,000 cards [5][6] Competitive Landscape - Baidu's Kunlunxin and Cambricon each shipped around 116,000 cards, ranking them jointly third among Chinese vendors [6] - Other Chinese vendors like Hygon, MetaX, and Iluvatar CoreX accounted for 5%, 4%, and 3% of total shipments, respectively [6] Government Initiatives - In 2025, the central government initiated a new wave of AI infrastructure spending, encouraging local governments to accelerate the establishment of intelligent computing centers with directives to prioritize domestic products [6]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the adjustment in the market presents an opportunity to invest in Chinese assets, highlighting the emergence of significant bottom points in the Chinese stock market after recent adjustments [11][12][14] - The report identifies that China's energy consumption has a low oil and gas proportion of less than 30%, which is below the global average, enhancing resilience against risks [11][12] - The report notes that China's relatively stable security situation, complete supply chain system, and proactive industrial development are unique advantages that can counteract the prevailing narrative of stagflation [11][12] Group 2 - The report suggests that the focus on domestic demand and expansionary fiscal policies in 2026 will support consumption and stabilize investment, which is expected to counterbalance the decline in global demand [12][13] - The report highlights the acceleration of capital expenditure in new economic sectors and the growth of global energy transition demands as key drivers for China's growth logic in 2026 [13][14] - The report recommends sectors such as finance, technology manufacturing, and stable domestic demand as primary investment targets, emphasizing the value of high dividend yield in financial and stable sectors [14] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of Tencent Holdings, which is expected to see solid growth driven by AI investments, with projected revenues of 830.2 billion CNY in 2026 [21] - The report highlights the launch of Claude Cowork, which is anticipated to accelerate CPU demand due to its role in AI applications, suggesting a significant growth opportunity in the electronic sector [24][29] - The report mentions that the communication sector, particularly optical interconnection, is expected to experience high growth due to increasing demand in AI infrastructure [36][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the electronic sector, highlighting the potential for structural investment opportunities despite current market fluctuations [4]. Core Insights - AI computing power is identified as the core driving force of the semiconductor industry, with a trillion-dollar semiconductor market expected to arrive by the end of 2026, earlier than previously anticipated [4]. - China is projected to account for over 30% of global wafer production capacity, enhancing its strategic position in the global semiconductor landscape [4]. - Xiaomi Group is expected to achieve synergistic growth across its four major business segments by 2025, showcasing strong resilience and growth potential [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electronic sector is experiencing a downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.41% and the Shenwan Electronics Index down by 2.09%, underperforming the broader market [5][18]. - The semiconductor market is anticipated to see significant growth driven by AI infrastructure spending, projected to reach $450 billion in 2026 [9]. Company Performance - Xiaomi Group reported total revenue of 457.3 billion yuan in 2025, a 25% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit rising by 43.8% to 39.2 billion yuan [4][9]. - The company’s smartphone segment generated revenue of 186.4 billion yuan, with a global shipment of 165.2 million units [4]. Market Trends - The report notes three major trends for 2026: dominance of AI computing power, a storage revolution with HBM market growth of 58% to $54.6 billion, and technological upgrades driven by advanced process nodes [4]. - The report suggests focusing on structural opportunities in semiconductor equipment, materials, and AI-related sectors, particularly in companies benefiting from strong domestic and international demand [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to companies like Lexin Technology, Hengxuan Technology, and others that are poised to benefit from the AIOT sector [5]. - It also highlights the importance of monitoring the semiconductor supply chain for potential domestic replacements and price recovery in leading stocks [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the electronic sector, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook on investment opportunities within the industry [4]. Core Insights - The semiconductor market is expected to reach a trillion-dollar scale by the end of 2026, driven by AI computing power, with China projected to hold over 30% of global wafer production capacity [4][9]. - Xiaomi Group is anticipated to achieve synergistic growth across its four major business segments by 2025, showcasing strong resilience and growth potential [4][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - AI computing power is becoming the core driving force of the semiconductor industry, with global AI infrastructure spending projected to reach $450 billion in 2026, leading to increased demand for GPUs, HBM, and high-speed network chips [4][9]. - The storage market is undergoing a revolution, with global storage output expected to surpass wafer foundry for the first time, and HBM market size projected to grow by 58% to $54.6 billion [4]. Company Performance - Xiaomi Group reported total revenue of 457.3 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with adjusted net profit rising by 43.8% to 39.2 billion yuan [4][9]. - The smartphone segment generated revenue of 186.4 billion yuan, with global shipments reaching 165.2 million units, while the AIoT and consumer products segment achieved a revenue of 123.2 billion yuan, marking an 18.3% increase [4][9]. Market Trends - The electronic sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index down by 1.41% and the Shenwan electronic index down by 2.09% [5][18]. - Despite strong demand driven by AI, high storage prices may significantly suppress demand, and there is a potential for a cooling trend in AI investment [5][18]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on structural opportunities in the semiconductor sector, particularly in AIOT, advanced packaging equipment, and domestic production capacity expansion [5]. - Recommended companies include Lexin Technology, Cambrian, and various players in the AI innovation-driven segment [5].

Group 1 - The Core View: The Science and Technology Innovation Entrepreneurship AI Index (932456.CSI) was officially launched on May 14, 2025, to reflect the overall performance of large and mid-cap growth companies with core artificial intelligence attributes in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [1] - The index aims to capture the performance of companies involved in AI foundational resources, technology development, and application support, highlighting the characteristics of balancing domestic and overseas computing power chains [9] - The index is composed of 50 securities selected based on liquidity and market capitalization, focusing on high-elasticity computing power targets [9] Group 2 - Highlight 1: The top-level design of the "14th Five-Year Plan" anchors long-term beta for the AI chain, addressing core constraints in AI development and promoting large-scale application [10] - Highlight 2: The AI industry cycle is transitioning from the training phase to the inference phase, with significant capital expenditure from cloud vendors continuing to expand [14][17] - Highlight 3: The anticipated reversal of "stagflation" expectations may lead to greater elasticity in technology styles, with historical data showing that tech stocks often rebound first after such expectations dissipate [26][28] Group 3 - Highlight 4: The index focuses on large and mid-cap growth styles, with a market capitalization structure dominated by companies with over 100 billion in market value, providing strong foundational support [36] - Highlight 5: The index achieves risk balance across markets, with a reasonable distribution of core technology sectors, effectively avoiding excessive concentration in a single market or sector [41][45] - Highlight 6: The index is heavily weighted towards upstream sectors while also considering downstream applications, capturing the full-cycle benefits of the AI industry [48] Group 4 - Highlight 7: The AI industry's prosperity continues to validate the index's strong earnings growth expectations, with projected net profit growth significantly outperforming mainstream broad-based indices [56] - Highlight 8: The index exhibits high return elasticity and a favorable risk-return ratio, with a historical annualized return of 50.02% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.18, indicating strong risk compensation [60]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-level technological self-reliance as the core engine for developing new productivity, with AI computing power expected to become the foundation for digital economy and intelligent development, particularly benefiting the domestic AI hardware industry during this period [1][6]. Demand Side - The demand for AI hardware in China is expected to grow rapidly due to the increasing capabilities of domestic AI models, the proliferation of Agent applications, and the expansion of model usage overseas, indicating a shift from training-driven to inference-driven demand [4][8]. - The domestic AI small models have reached a commercially viable level, with local enterprises poised to benefit from innovations in the next 3-5 years, supported by a large consumer base and local preferences for solutions [4][9]. - The token consumption in China has seen a significant increase, with daily average token calls projected to rise from 1 trillion in early 2024 to over 140 trillion by March 2026, indicating a transition from concept validation to substantial demand [12][16]. Supply Side - The domestic AI hardware supply chain is becoming more competitive, with advancements in AI chips and server clusters narrowing the gap with international leaders, supported by national planning and the "East Data West Computing" initiative [4][26]. - The complete AI end-side industry chain in China includes chips, modules, ODM, and applications, positioning the country as a core manufacturing base for AI hardware innovation [52]. - The software support system for domestic AI chips is improving, with collaborations between chip manufacturers and infrastructure service providers enhancing performance and usability [34][38]. Future Outlook - The "East Data West Computing" strategy aims to optimize the geographical distribution of computing resources, enhancing efficiency and sustainability in the digital infrastructure [47][48]. - The integration of AI into various sectors, such as smart homes and automotive, is expected to drive significant growth in the end-side AI hardware market, with predictions of AI penetration in smart homes reaching nearly 50% by 2025 [21][25].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the domestic AI computing industry, highlighting significant growth potential and performance improvements among key players [5][12]. Core Insights - The domestic average daily token usage has surpassed 140 trillion, marking a growth of over 1000 times in two years, with Chinese AI models leading globally [11][12]. - A CPU price increase is underway, with Intel and AMD planning to raise prices by 10-15% due to supply shortages and increased demand from large enterprises [14][15]. - The report predicts that 2026 will be a pivotal year for China's computing demand, transitioning from "cloud training" to a dual-driven model of "training + inference" [5][26]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Domestic Token Surge and CPU Price Increases - The average daily token usage in China has grown from 100 billion at the beginning of 2024 to 140 trillion by March 2026, with significant contributions from domestic AI models [11]. - Domestic AI computing and leasing companies are reaching a performance inflection point, with companies like Cambricon and Lito Electronics expected to see substantial revenue growth [12]. Section 2: Rapid Release of Computing Demand - Major internet companies are advancing their AI models, with a focus on high-quality and multi-modal capabilities, driving up the demand for computing resources [26]. - The inference side of computing demand is expected to grow steeply, with applications in AI entertainment and programming gaining traction [41]. Section 3: Supply Side Improvements and Domestic Production Acceleration - The supply side is transitioning from a state of scarcity to structural balance, with increased availability of computing resources to meet rising demand [5]. - Domestic chip manufacturers are achieving significant performance milestones, with companies like Huawei and Cambrian making strides in their product offerings [20][22]. Section 4: Full Chain Inflation in Domestic Computing - The report anticipates a "full-chain inflation" cycle in the computing industry, with growth expected across various segments including AI data centers and cloud services [5]. - Investment strategies should focus on companies closely tied to major internet firms, which are likely to yield significant returns due to their established supply chains [5]. Section 5: Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include Dongyangguang, Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Lito Electronics, YN Energy, and others involved in the AI computing ecosystem [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of the Shanghai 50 ETF (510800), which opened at 1.351 yuan with a 0.00% change on March 26 [1][2] - The major holdings of the Shanghai 50 ETF include stocks like Kweichow Moutai, Ping An Insurance, and others, with varying performance; Kweichow Moutai down 0.09%, Ping An down 0.02%, and others showing similar declines [1] - The Shanghai 50 ETF has a benchmark performance based on the Shanghai 50 Index return, managed by China Construction Bank Fund Management Co., with a return of 35.13% since its inception on December 22, 2017, but a recent one-month return of -6.44% [2] Group 2 - A MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating potential upward momentum for certain stocks [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of the E Fund's SSE 50 ETF (510100), which opened at a decline of 0.35% on March 26, 2023, priced at 2.856 yuan [1][2] - The major holdings of the SSE 50 ETF include Guizhou Moutai, China Ping An, Zijin Mining, China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, Yangtze Power, Cambrian Biologics, CITIC Securities, Heng Rui Medicine, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with most showing slight declines, while Cambrian Biologics saw a minor increase of 0.10% [1][2] - The SSE 50 ETF's performance benchmark is the SSE 50 Index return, managed by E Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 31.56% since its establishment on September 6, 2019, and a recent one-month return of -6.41% [2] Group 2 - A MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating potential upward momentum for certain stocks [3]