SHUNXIN AGRICULTURE(000860) 金融界·2025-04-22 14:49Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Shunxin Agriculture experienced a paradoxical situation of "profit increase without revenue increase," with a revenue decline of 13.85% to 9.126 billion yuan, while net profit turned positive at 231 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [2][3]. However, the first quarter of 2025 showed alarming declines in both revenue and net profit, raising concerns about the company's transformation challenges [2][9]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for 2024 was 9.126 billion yuan, down 13.85% from 2023, while net profit reached 231 million yuan, a 178.20% increase from a loss of 296 million yuan in 2023 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 246 million yuan, up 143.08% from a loss of 570 million yuan in the previous year [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly to 112 million yuan, compared to a negative cash flow of 738 million yuan in 2023 [3]. - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 0.3116 yuan, a turnaround from a loss of 0.3985 yuan per share in 2023 [3]. Business Segment Analysis - The white liquor segment, particularly the Niulanshan brand, was the only bright spot, contributing 70.41 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 77.15% of total revenue, with both sales and production volumes increasing [4]. - Price adjustments in February 2024 led to a 4.23 percentage point increase in gross margin to 36.03%, while the expense ratio decreased by 3.10 percentage points to 18.29% [5]. - Despite the growth, concerns exist regarding the core product "Bai Niu Er," which may be reclassified as a blended liquor under new national standards, potentially impacting brand perception [5]. Cost and Operational Challenges - The fourth quarter of 2024 revealed a significant loss of 1.51 billion yuan, a 45-fold increase from a loss of 3.31 million yuan in the same period the previous year, with gross margin declining by 8.56 percentage points to 35.11% [6]. - In Q1 2025, revenue fell by 19.69% to 3.258 billion yuan, and net profit dropped by 37.34% to 282 million yuan, indicating diminishing returns from price increases [7][9]. - Rising costs in raw materials and logistics have eroded the benefits of price hikes, despite a reduction in overall expenses [7]. Market Position and Investor Sentiment - The company’s stock performance reflects market concerns, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.18, significantly higher than the industry median of 20.86 [10][11]. - The number of shareholders increased to 98,200, but the average market value per share decreased by 4.38%, indicating waning investor confidence [8]. - The company faces pressure to innovate and diversify its product offerings to sustain growth, as reliance on a single product category poses risks [12].