中国企业资本联盟中国区首席经济学家柏文喜指出："主要由于白酒行业深度调整，白酒产品销售量同比减少，导致营收和利润水平下降。" 数据背后的残酷现实 据顺鑫农业2025年7月14日发布的业绩预告显示，公司预计上半年归属于上市公司股东的净利润（以下简称"净利润"）在1.55亿元至1.95亿元，同比下降幅度 高达53.85%-63.32%；扣非净利润预计1.55亿元-1.95亿元，同比下降53.79%-63.27%。 近日，北京顺鑫农业股份有限公司（以下简称"顺鑫农业"）发布的2025年上半年业绩预告，继2024年扭亏为盈后，其再次陷入亏损。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同其 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 | 盈利:15,500 万元 - 19,500 万元 | 盈利:42,257. | | 股东的净利润 | 比上年同期下降:53.85%-63.32% | | | 扣除非经常性 | 盈利:15,500 万元 - 19,500 万元 | 盈利: 42,198. | | 损益后的净利润 | 比上年同期下降:53.79%-63.27% | | | 基本每股收益 | 盈利:0.2090元 ...

数据不会说谎：2024年，规模以上白酒企业产量414.5万千升（同比降1.8%），销售收入却逆势增至 7963.8亿元（同比增5.3%），呈现"量降利升"的特殊形态；而2025年上半年，风向急转——中国酒业协 会数据显示，59.7%的酒企营业利润下滑，50.9%的企业营业额收缩，行业平均存货周转天数高达900天 （同比增10%），更有60%的企业陷入价格倒挂困境。 在这场"冰火交替"的调整中，行业趋势正变得愈发清晰。 半年业绩大考：头部稳中有进，区域与中小酒企承压 上半年的白酒江湖，三个方向的变化尤为突出，显著勾勒出行业新格局： ▶ ▷ 一是"收缩与集中"并行，稳健成共识。 利润与销量双缩窄的压力下，行业集中度加速提升——小厂加速出清，头部企业则集体将目标从"高速 增长"转向"稳健发展"。贵州茅台将2025年营收增速目标定为9%左右，五粮液提出"增速与宏观经济匹 配"，泸州老窖强调"精耕细作稳增长"，均是这一趋势的直接体现。 ▶ ▷ 二是"渠道革命"加速，消费者触达更直接。 大企业不再满足于传统经销商体系，开始主动"直面消费者"：网络平台与即时零售等新渠道销量持续上 升，如五粮液在北京、上海等20城试点"终端 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 分析师：杨骥 执业证书号：S1230522030003 yangji@stocke.com.cn 龙头白马持续反弹，大众品 Q2 业绩表现分化 ——食饮行业周报（2025 年 7 月第 3 期） 投资要点 食饮观点：新老消费板块轮动延续，以白酒、乳制品为代表的龙头白马本周 继续反弹；大众品 Q2 业绩表现分化，新消费相关标的 Q2 业绩预期此前持续 调整，但依旧实现快速增长，部分标的受制于传统渠道改革，业绩仍在调整 阶段。综合来看，白酒板块我们认为综合头部酒企谨慎假设下的利润底和高 ROE、高分红、高股息可以推算市值底部区间，当前头部酒企股价下行空间 或有限，具备一定配置价值，基于此当前推荐贵州茅台、山西汾酒、泸州老 窖。新消费短期虽有所回调，但长期动力仍在，下半年蓄势后有望卷土重 来，关注股价低位/低估值及后续有催化的潜力标的，当前推荐卫龙美味、 伊利股份、万辰集团；白酒当前推荐贵州茅台、山西汾酒。 白酒板块：茅台将全力完成年度既定目标，白酒板块当前仍处低位，关注低 位下板块轮动的反弹机会，优选品牌势能较强的香型龙头酒企。我们认为综 合头部酒企谨慎假设下的利润底和高 ...

（文/朱道义 编辑/张广凯） 当白酒行业的寒意渐浓，"二锅头一哥"薄利多销的路数也不灵了？ 7月14日晚间，北京顺鑫农业股份有限公司（股票代码：000860.SZ）披露了2025年半年度业绩预告。预计报告期内的归母净利润为1.55亿元至1.95亿元，较 上年同期的4.23亿元大幅下降53.85%至63.32%；每股收益亦从上年同期的0.5697元/股，缩水至0.2629元/股以下，同比下滑约54%。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 股东的净利润 | 盈利: 15,500 万元 - 19,500 万元 | 盈利: 42,257.37 万元 | | | 比上年同期下降:53.85%-63.32% | | | 扣除非经常性 损益后的净利润 | 盈利: 15,500 万元 - 19,500 万元 | 盈利: 42,198.08 万元 | | | 比上年同期下降:53.79%-63.27% | | | 基本每股收益 | 盈利:0.2090元/股-0.2629元/股 | 盈利:0.5697 元/股 | 对于业绩颓势，顺鑫农业在公告中将其归因于：白酒行业 ...

行业动态 1.1-6月烟酒收入同比增长5.5% 6月社会消费品零售总额42287亿元，同比增长4.8%；餐饮收入4708亿元，同比增长0.9%。其中烟酒类1-6月收入3316亿元，同比增长5.5%；6月份收入为516 亿元，同比下降0.7%。（国家统计局） 2.6月酒饮茶制造业增加值同比增长3.4% 6月，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.8%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）；1-6月，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.4%。其中，酒、饮料 和精制茶制造业6月增加值同比增长3.4%，1-6月增加值同比增长4.7%。（国家统计局） 3.4项行业标准正式发布 近日，由全国酿酒标准化技术委员会组织制修订的QB/T 8146-2025《发酵型米酒》、QB/T 5476.6-2025《果酒第6部分：荔枝酒》、QB/T 5476.8-2025《果酒 第8部分：石榴酒》3项行业标准，以及由全国食品工业标准化技术委员会工业发酵分技术委员会组织制修订的QB/T 4577-2025《甜酒曲》行业标准正式发 布，实施日期均为2026年2月1日。 此外，由全国酿酒标准化技术委员会归口的20252734-T-607《山葡萄酒质量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is facing unprecedented challenges, including plummeting profits, inventory buildup, and price inversion, raising concerns about the potential bursting of the industry's bubble [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Four listed baijiu companies have issued profit warnings, indicating a significant decline in earnings, with net profits expected to drop by 90.08% to 93.39% compared to the previous year [1] - The company Jiu Gui Jiu is projected to report a net profit of only 8 million to 12 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a staggering 93% decrease year-on-year, with revenue down 43% to 560 million yuan [1] - Water Well Square, despite a 14.54% increase in sales volume, saw revenue decline by 12.84% to 150 million yuan, and net profit halved by 57% to 10 million yuan [2] Group 2: Inventory and Distribution Challenges - Jiu Gui Jiu's dealer network expanded from 528 to 1,774 from 2019 to 2023, leading to severe inventory issues, with a backlog of 1.67 billion yuan and an average turnover period of 1,300 days, significantly higher than the industry average of 800 days [2] - The overall baijiu industry is facing a massive inventory buildup of 150 billion yuan, with 60% of companies experiencing price inversion [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The baijiu market is witnessing a structural shift in consumption, with a sharp decline in demand for high-end products and a growing preference for lower-priced options, particularly in the 300-500 yuan range [5] - Young consumers are increasingly abandoning baijiu, with only 19% of those born in the 1990s and 2000s expressing a preference for it, compared to 52% for beer [5] - The traditional sales channels are struggling, with e-commerce now accounting for 18% of sales, and live streaming driving price transparency [8] Group 4: Strategic Responses - Companies are attempting to adapt to the downturn; for instance, Jiu Gui Jiu launched a new product in collaboration with a popular retailer, but concerns remain about the effectiveness of such strategies [7] - Water Well Square is focusing on banquet promotions and cashback offers, yet continues to face significant losses [7] - Major brands like Wuliangye and Moutai are introducing new products aimed at younger consumers, but the effectiveness of these initiatives is still uncertain [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growing popularity of low-priced "light bottle" liquor in the Chinese market, as high-end liquor brands struggle with price declines and sales challenges [1][14][16] - Major liquor companies are launching new products in the light bottle segment, with notable examples including Yanghe's "Yanghe Daqu High Line Light Bottle Liquor" priced at 59 yuan, which sold over 10,000 bottles in 48 hours [1][4] - The light bottle liquor market has reached a scale of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan in 2024, with continued growth expected in 2025, making it one of the most dynamic segments in the liquor industry [3][10] Group 2 - Consumer behavior is shifting towards more rational choices, with a significant portion of consumers prioritizing cost-effectiveness and practicality in their liquor purchases [10][11] - The traditional light bottle liquor market, represented by brands like Niulanshan and Baijiu, has established a strong presence, while new entrants are emerging to capture market share amid changing consumer preferences [7][9] - The competitive landscape is intensifying as more companies enter the light bottle segment, leading to concerns about market saturation and the ability to maintain quality and differentiation [17][18] Group 3 - The high-end liquor market, particularly brands priced above 1,000 yuan, is experiencing significant price declines, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye seeing their market prices drop below their official guidance prices [16][17] - The shift towards light bottle liquor reflects a broader trend in the industry where companies are adapting to consumer demands and seeking new growth opportunities in a challenging market environment [15][17] - The light bottle segment is increasingly viewed as a mainstream choice, moving away from its previous perception as a low-end product, and is now seen as a potential growth engine for liquor companies [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple liquor companies have reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, leading to a collective drop in stock prices for these companies [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Companies such as Jiu Gui Jiu, Jin Zhong Zi Jiu, Shun Xin Agriculture, and Shui Jing Fang have all issued profit warnings, indicating substantial losses or declines in earnings [1][4]. - Jiu Gui Jiu expects a net profit of only 8 million to 12 million yuan, a year-on-year drop of 90.1% to 93.4%, with revenue around 560 million yuan, down 43% [5][6]. - Shun Xin Agriculture anticipates a net profit of 155 million to 195 million yuan, a decrease of 53.85% to 63.32% year-on-year [6][7]. - Shui Jing Fang projects a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 56.52%, with revenue of 1.498 billion yuan, a 12.84% decline [6][7]. - Jin Zhong Zi Jiu forecasts a net loss of 90 million to 60 million yuan, indicating a challenging financial situation [6][7]. - *ST Yan Shi expects a net loss of 50 million to 75 million yuan, showing a slight improvement compared to the previous year [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcements, liquor stocks collectively fell, with Jin Zhong Zi Jiu and Jiu Gui Jiu dropping over 4%, and other companies like Shui Jing Fang and Shun Xin Agriculture also experiencing declines [1][2]. - The overall liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with weak demand in consumption scenarios such as business banquets [4][8]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Despite the current downturn, some analysts suggest that the liquor sector may have limited downside potential and could present mid-term investment opportunities [8]. - Factors supporting this view include sufficient pre-receipts for leading liquor companies, which may limit the extent of profit declines, and an increasing dividend rate that enhances the attractiveness of leading companies' stock yields [8].

证券代码：000860 证券简称：顺鑫农业 公告编号：2025-021 一、本期业绩预计情况 （一）业绩预告期间：2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日 （二）业绩预告情况：同向下降 北京顺鑫农业股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 报告期内，白酒行业深度调整，公司白酒板块承压，白酒产品销售量同比减 少，影响了整体营收和利润水平。 四、风险提示 本次业绩预告是公司财务部门初步测算的结果，具体业绩数据将在公司 2025 年半年度报告中详细披露。公司将严格依照有关法律法规的规定和要求， 及时做好信息披露工作，敬请投资者注意投资风险。 特此公告。 北京顺鑫农业股份有限公司 董事会 | 项目 | 本报告期 | | 上年同期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 股东的净利润 | 盈利：15,500 万元 | 万元–19,500 | 盈利：42,257.37 | 万元 | | | 比上年同期下降：53.85%–63.32% | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core index of the CSI 1000 major consumer index reported at 7845.59 points, with a decline of 4.42% over the past month and 2.47% over the past three months, while it has increased by 0.26% year-to-date [1] - The CSI 1000 index consists of 10 industry indices selected based on liquidity and market representation, providing diverse investment targets for investors [1] - The top ten holdings in the CSI 1000 major consumer index include: Lao Baigan Wine (4.28%), Lianhua Holdings (3.75%), Biological Shares (3.1%), Zhongchong Shares (3.01%), Shunxin Agriculture (2.86%), Yanjinpuzi (2.81%), Jinhui Industry (2.79%), Shanghai Jahwa (2.53%), Miaokelan Duo (2.52%), and Tangrenshen (2.43%) [1] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI 1000 major consumer index is divided between the Shanghai Stock Exchange (51.18%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (48.82%) [1] - The industry composition of the CSI 1000 major consumer index includes: Food (36.45%), Breeding (25.12%), Alcohol (12.51%), Household Products (10.76%), Planting (8.80%), Beauty Care (4.35%), and Soft Drinks (2.01%) [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, and can also be adjusted temporarily under special circumstances [2]