陆前进：美元动摇，全球货币体系迎来变革

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant declines in the US stock, bond, and currency markets, highlighting the impact of the US government's tariff measures on market confidence in the dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On April 21, the US markets experienced a simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, with major stock indices dropping over 2% [1]. - The ICE dollar index (DXY) fell to a low of 97.92, the lowest since April 2022 [1]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 7.74 basis points, while the 30-year yield rose by 8.6 basis points, with the 2-year/10-year yield spread widening to approximately 65 basis points, the largest in over three years [1]. Group 2: Trade Deficit and Financial Accounts - The US is characterized as a net capital-importing country, with foreign financial assets amounting to approximately $34.4 trillion and liabilities of $54.3 trillion, resulting in a net foreign asset position of -$19.9 trillion [2]. - The US maintains a current account deficit while experiencing a financial account surplus, indicating that it imports more goods than it exports but attracts significant capital inflows [2][3]. Group 3: Implications of Tariff Policies - The current US government's attempt to reduce trade deficits through tariffs may backfire, potentially undermining the dollar's international role and creditworthiness [4]. - Since 2001, the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 71% to below 58%, indicating a potential shift in global currency dynamics [4]. Group 4: Future Currency Trends - The decline in confidence in the dollar may lead to increased prominence of other currencies such as the euro and the renminbi, as these currencies gain traction in global trade and investment [4][5]. - There is a possibility of enhanced regional currency cooperation, with entities like the EU and BRICS nations potentially promoting their currencies to strengthen economic stability and competitiveness [5].