Cambricon(SH:688256) 智通财经网·2025-04-23 01:46Group 1: China Export Tracking - Goldman Sachs' China team launched the "China Export Tracking" series focusing on changes in China's export patterns to the U.S. amid escalating tariffs [1] - The report surveyed 46 companies whose products account for nearly 70% of China's total exports to the U.S. to assess the impact of trade dynamics [1] - Key questions included changes in export orders compared to pre-tariff levels, initiation of price negotiations, and views on alternative supply chains and inventory [1] Group 2: Tariff-Induced Recession Risks - The adjustment of tariff policies by the Trump administration has created significant uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook, raising recession concerns [4] - Economic observers have differing views on recession risks, with some indicating a higher likelihood due to uncertainty, while others believe trade policies may not necessarily lead to a recession [4] - The report evaluates market vulnerabilities to recession and discusses potential protective measures for investment portfolios [4] Group 3: Company Updates - Cambricon's rating was upgraded to "Buy" due to growth driven by cloud capital expenditure, with expectations of profitability in 2025 and an EBIT margin of 26% by 2030 [4] - Weichai Power is expected to report a net profit decline of about 5% in Q1 2025, but a 20% increase when excluding the impact of Kion Group, supported by improved profit margins [5] - TSMC maintains its revenue and capital expenditure guidance for 2025, surprising investors amid concerns over tariff impacts on demand, though it anticipates a larger decline in gross margins than previously expected [6] - Fuyao Glass's Q1 2025 results met expectations, with limited tariff impact, and the company is expected to gradually restore new orders [7] - Ruifeng New Materials reported a net profit of 195 million RMB in Q1 2025, a 28% year-on-year increase, benefiting from the ongoing recovery in exports [8] Group 4: Global Economic Insights - The normalization of U.S. Treasury markets shows signs of recovery, but achieving a sustained rebound remains uncertain due to various risks [9] - There are no significant signs of large-scale outflows from U.S. assets, with recent market volatility attributed to leveraged investors rather than mass selling [9] - Gold prices have risen approximately 7% since April 8, supported by structural factors rather than speculative inflows, with expectations for gold prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by year-end [9]