dbg markets:谁能撑住一个没有鲍威尔的美元？

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tension between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell could lead to significant implications for the U.S. dollar, which has already seen a notable decline this year, raising concerns about potential economic instability [3][4]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The U.S. dollar has depreciated by 9% this year, with a nearly 6% drop occurring just this month [3]. - The dollar's current decline has erased all gains from the previous year, and it is on track to record its largest monthly drop since the 2007-09 global financial crisis [3][4]. - The scale of the current dollar sell-off is described as historic, with potential long-term impacts on the credibility of U.S. economic decision-making [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market participants are increasingly concerned about the implications of political interference in the Federal Reserve, which could undermine the dollar's credibility and attractiveness to foreign investors [4]. - Current market expectations suggest that if Powell were to be dismissed, the Federal Reserve might adopt a more dovish stance, potentially lowering interest rates by 100 basis points to a range of 3.25% - 3.50% [5]. - The likelihood of Powell being dismissed by the end of the year is currently estimated at 19%, indicating a rising concern about the pressure on the dollar and the associated uncertainties for the global economy [6].