闫瑞祥：黄金冲高回落现危机，前期支撑变阻力敲响警钟

Macroeconomic Overview - Trump's high tariff policy is causing turmoil in the international economy and financial markets, with the IMF predicting a slowdown in global economic output as a result [1] - Finance ministers from multiple countries are negotiating with the Trump administration to lower tariffs, with 18 countries already proposing solutions and discussions planned with officials from 34 countries [1] - Morgan Stanley's Bessent believes that while trade tensions among major powers may ease, negotiations with Asian countries will be challenging [1] - The U.S. stock market surged following the announcement that the tariff deadlock is unsustainable, leading to a stronger dollar and reduced demand for gold, which has seen a 29% increase this year [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices could exceed $4000 next year due to recession risks, tariff hikes, and trade tensions [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring Federal Reserve officials' speeches for monetary policy clues, as well as the April manufacturing PMI preliminary values from the Eurozone and the U.S. [1] - The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine remains uncertain, with Putin proposing a ceasefire and the UK Foreign Secretary advocating for peace [1] Gold Market Analysis - On Tuesday, gold prices experienced a decline, reaching a high of 3499.91 and a low of 3366.71, closing at 3380.85 [2] - The price initially continued to rise but faced pressure during the European trading session and weakened further in the U.S. session, breaking through key support levels [2] - Monthly analysis indicates that after three months of increases, a correction occurred, and a similar pattern is observed with four months of increases followed by a correction in April [2] - The weekly analysis shows that gold prices are supported at the 3006 level, while the daily analysis indicates support at 3206 [2] - Short-term analysis reveals that the price has broken through the four-hour support level, which has now turned into resistance, with the new resistance range identified at 3414-3415 [2] Key Economic Data and Events - Upcoming events include the G20 finance and central bank ministers' meeting, various manufacturing PMI preliminary values from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials [4]